Case of Case-Shiller dishes

(More from "The Next City" conference last weekend in Cambridge. I encountered blogus interruptus when my Mac laptop went on strike. I'm doing a series of notebook-dumping posts.)

Chip Case (right), Wellesley College economist and a founder of the Case-Shiller Home Price Index, was quite entertaining and not what you might expect from an academic in "the dismal science."

A Chip Case joke: "I had an economist call me the other day, said he couldn't sell his house and what should he do. I said, 'For Christ's sake you're an economist! It's worth -- I hate to tell you -- what someone's willing to pay for it!' "

Chip Case prediction on the commercial real estate: "It's the next shoe to fall." Every worker lost (and the U.S. job loss from December 2007 to March 2009 has been 5.1 million), creates an average vacancy of 180 square feet. "That stuff is still being held on the books of banks at par," he said.

Case response when asked about the so-called "American Dream of Homeownership"?
"It's largely bulls---." He went on to say, "Rental is better for a lot of people (unless they bought during a boom)."

John King, urban design writer for the San Francisco Chronicle: What about all the starter-home suburbs?
Case: I don't know. They're going to stagnate.

Me (buttonholing Case after his talk): What advice would you give to governments and policymakers on how to deal with stagnating starter home suburbs?
Case: I'd appoint a housing czar, inventory what's out there, what condition it's in, and start buying. Buy, and hold until it's needed.

He then acknowledged state and local governments have no money. "The only government with money is the one that's printing it."

Housing expert: Upturn this year?

Chip Case, economist from Wellesley University and a creator of the Case-Shiller Housing Index:
"I think you're going to see things turn this year. In the housing market. Commercial real estate is going to dominate the press in the next few months. [Because of banking issues.] But the story's in residential ... "

Case noted, wryly that his long-time Red Sox fandom proves he's an optimist.

"Florida's not going to die. Arizona is sick but it's not gonna die." His point is that people still want to live in warm areas.

"Florida and California alone are one-third of the [housing and real estate] value in the United States. California alone is a quarter of it."

(This is at a conference on "The Next City" in Cambridge, Mass., sponsored by the Lincoln Institute of Land Policy, the Nieman Foundation and Harvard's Graduate School of Design.)

The 'Next City': Transit or ... another Michigan?

Justin, who commented on the previous post, hopes we (the country) are finally getting it together.

(To fill you in: I'm at a conference on "The Next City" in Cambridge, MA, sponsored by the Lincoln Institute of Land Policy and the Nieman Foundation and Harvard's Graduate School of Design.) We're now listening to economist Chip Case of Wellesley University, creator of the Case-Shiller Index of real estate. More about him later.)

Keith Schneider -- a Michigan-based writer and blogger (ModeShift.org) who free-lances for the New York Times and founded the Michigan Land Use Institute -- opined that unless the country does get its act together, the whole country will be like Michigan. That is, suffering deeply.

By getting its act together, he means stronger transit and not jettisoning the already-built infrastructure in cities such as Detroit and Cleveland, and building in ways that aren't as expensive for public infrastructure as the years of low-density sprawl growth has been.

He noted that the problems the whole country is now seeing, such as foreclosures and declining incomes, were first visible in the outer-outer suburbs of Detroit. (And, I should add, in the new starter home subdivisions ringing Charlotte.)

The 'Next City' – on fast tracks?

I'm listening to Michael Dukakis at conference on "The Next City" in Cambridge, MA. He's a huge rail fan. Says Boston IS this country's best version of "the next city." That's because it's compact, walkable and has plenty of transportation options beyond highways.

He's optimistic, because the president and the Congress are now interested in trying to build a better national rail transportation system. "My concern is what’s going on at the state and local level," he just said. "That’s where we’ve got to spend some time." He didn't mention South Carolina specifically, but ...

A call to help our schools and kids

Leonard Pitts, the Miami Herald's Pulitzer-winning columnist, is in town today. He spoke to a breakfast sponsored by the nonprofit group Mecklenburg Citizens for Public Education, or MeckEd (http://www.mecked.org/ ). This afternoon he'll visit the staff at The Observer.

In 2007 Pitts wrote a series, "What Works," in which he highlighted more than a dozen successful efforts around the country to help children and schools. One was from Gaston, N.C. (a town near Roanoke Rapids on northeastern North Carolina, not nearby Gaston County) and featured a KIPP Academy.

"How do you change something many of us long ago learned to take for granted?" he asked the crowd. And, "If we know what works, why not just do it?"

He quoted an ancient Greek saying: "A society grows great when old men plant trees whose shade they know they will never sit in."

In other words, get involved where you can, doing what you can.

He's not the first to note this, but it's still true: A strong public education system is important for the local economy, for keeping businesses healthy and for the fiscally prudent goal of keeping local people engaged in productive lives and out of jail. It's not just a feel-good thing, Pitts said, but a common-sense mathematical calculation.

Yet if you read the comments section of this blog or many online sites, anytime the public schools emerge as a topic, and they're filled with hostility toward Charlotte-Mecklenburg Schools in particular and public schools in general. Which is, at bottom, incredibly counter-productive for the whole community. Nothing is perfect, but invective doesn't help anyone improve anything and indeed, tends to have the opposite effect.

Has my kid had some bad teachers at CMS? You bet. Been in class with a few deeply troubled kids? Yep. Do CMS administrators make occasionally silly decisions? Of course. Why should they be different from managers everywhere? (I say that as a former department head, where made my share of dumb decisions.) None of those problems is specific to CMS or even to public schools.

Yet there's a vein of what seems to approach hatred running through parts of Charlotte, toward its public schools that too often drowns out an equally strong vein of support.

MeckEd hopes to start a community discussion on public education. Here's a link to their new discussion board, being run with help from the Crossroads Charlotte initiative.

And don't forget DonorsChoose.org, where you can put your money to good use helping classroom teachers who really need the help.

High-speed rail in N.C. on a faster track?

The News & Observer reports that N.C. transportation officials are optimistic that the Charlotte-Raleigh-Washington route will fare well in snagging some of those $8 billion in stimulus money for high-speed rail, and that it's one of six corridors feds have said are likely candidates for the first stimulus funds to be distributed later this year. (Associated Press report here.) If that's the case, then kudos to North Carolina for having worked for years to try to keep alive the idea of high-speed inter-city rail travel, even during years when many taxpayers thought the idea was just a waste of money.

I'm just back from a week spent traveling by rail in and around New York, New Jersey and Washington, DC. Took commuter rail from NYC to Princeton. Took heavy rail (that would be the subway) around Manhattan. Took Amtrak from NYC to DC. It was easy. It was fast. It was environmentally prudent. It was more convenient than flying -- downtown to downtown. And the whole time I was on the train I didn't worry a bit about landing in the Hudson River.

Does inter-city rail cost money? You betcha. But so do our taxpayer-built airports (don't forget the air traffic control system), as well as the interstate highway system, with which we are all busily polluting our atmosphere (possibly destroying the global environment as we do so, though I think I'll be dead before we know whether that's really what we're doing) and enriching some Middle Eastern potentates I'd just as soon not enrich. Everything's a trade-off.

Architects, and the GREEN Line

UNCC's planned uptown building (above)

Good news for N.C. architect Phil Freelon. His firm, the Freelon Group, has been named to a team that will design the Smithsonian's new Museum of African American History and Culture on the National Mall. David Adjaye, an up-and-coming young architect from London, will be lead designer. The Freelon Group is also designing Charlotte's now-under-construction Afro-American Cultural Center, to be named for architect and former Mayor Harvey Gantt.

Speaking of Gantt, he was one of the many glitterati (such as we have in Charlotte) at the UNC Charlotte groundbreaking on Monday for the 12-story building at 9th and Brevard streets uptown. Among the folks who spoke or whom I spotted in the crowd: UNC system president Erskine Bowles, UNCC trustees chair Ruth Shaw, Mayor Pat McCrory, City Council members Patsy Kinsey, Anthony Foxx and Andy Dulin, county commissioners' chair Jennifer Roberts, ex-BofA exec Dennis Rash, former First Union CEO Cliff Cameron, retailers Al and Leon Levine, and a string of city staffers including City Manager Curt Walton.

And if the firepower assembled at that party tent makes any difference, you should put money on the northeast transit corridor -- an extension of the existing Blue Line -- being renamed the Green Line, after UNCC's colors. References to the "green line" drew enthusiastic applause.

Do 'uptown leaders' still rule the roost?

Vacation over. No more outerbelt opinions -- at least for a while. Onward to other things.

Is the Saturday Observer so slightly read that a huge package on the future of Charlotte -- one suggesting that the city's "business leaders" weren't the leaders anymore -- got only two comments? Maybe everyone was busy dying Easter eggs or playing in the sunshine. Even a column from UNC Charlotte's Jeff Michael attracted little reader attention online. He writes that based on planning textbook factors, Charlotte shouldn't have been an urban success at all.

So take a look. Do you agree that the local oligarchy of business leaders is gone? If so, who should take their place, and how should that process happen?

I wrote, "I keep hearing people asking who Charlotte's next leaders will be – as though some king-maker somewhere gets out the royal staff and taps a few CEOs, who become The New Leaders. I think Charlotte is too big and too diverse for that old pattern of oligarchy to work, even if we wanted it to."

Put your comments here, or on the article, if you care to comment. Reactions (those that are civil and have some thought informing them) will help shape comments at a series of forums around the region next week, with 2008 Citistates Report writers Neal Peirce and Curtis Johnson and local elected officials, business leaders, environmentalists and others.

The forums are free and open to all. To Register: www.ui.uncc.edu.
They'll be:
Tuesday, April 21, Gaston County: 2-4:30 p.m. at Gaston Citizen's Resource Center, U.S. 321 North, Dallas.
Wednesday, April 22, York County: 1-3:30 p.m. at Rock Hill City Hall, 155 Johnston St., Rock Hill.
Thursday, April 23, Cabarrus County: 1-3:30 p.m., Cabarrus Arena and Events Center, 4751 N.C. 49 North, Concord.

I'm moderating the panels on Tuesday and Wednesday. I hope I'll see some of you there.

No, DON'T make 485 top priority

I'm going out on an opinion limb here, but I've been trying to figure out why just about every elected official around here seems to take it on faith that finishing that final leg of the outerbelt should be at the top of all local transportation spending lists. It shouldn't. There are better and more useful ways to spend that estimated $220 million.

Putting a lot more of it into Charlotte's transit system and better -- faster and more frequent -- rail service between North Carolinas cities would be a good place to start. Yes, it's expensive. But it would solve a lot more congestion than any urban loop road ever would. Yes, the money's in different legal "buckets." So change the law, already.

Meanwhile, we should get smarter in using state and federal transportation money restricted for streets and roads. There are plenty of legitimate projects in Mecklenburg County that are sorely needed, as development has overtaken old farm-to-market roads. But instead of building the typical NCDOT-style four-lane country highways, build four-lane boulevards. This is, after all, a city.

And this is the most important part of this piece: Build plenty of streets that connect. The more connections, the less the load on any one road. And can we stop calling them "roads"? They're streets. Streets are what you have in cities. Roads are what you have in the country.
Did I mention that this is, after all, a city?

On those interconnected streets, build (or require others to build) sidewalks and bike lanes. If key thoroughfares need connecting, buy the houses that stand in the way, and connect where needed.

Note what the state of Virginia has done. The state recently decided it will no longer maintain (or even plow) state-owned streets in new subdivisions that don't meet state requirements for connectivity and sidewalks. Here's a link to a WashPost story. The reasoning is sound: State taxpayers are funding road widenings that wouldn't be necessary if subdivisions and other developments were required to connect with each other. And disconnected neighborhoods pose a serious problem for emergency services.

That's true in North Carolina as well. Your tax dollars will pay for a Shelby bypass to bypass the current Shelby bypass, because Shelby and Cleveland County welcomed all that sprawling development along the U.S. 74 Bypass (while sort of pretending it also was supporting its downtown. Come on.)

Ditto Monroe, although are planned to help pay some of the planned Monroe bypass. Supposedly. (And anyway, it's looking as if the "Finish The Outerbelt" forces will use up that Monroe bypass money for a few years.) Ditto widening Providence Road, a state highway needlessly carrying thousands more vehicles than it would if developers had been required to connect their developments with a street network. But the developers didn't want to do that, because customers like to live on cul-de-sacs, so local rule-makers didn't make them.

Sure, that little gap atop 485 looks weird. But in terms of solving traffic congestion, it's a nonstarter. Loop roads have no history of solving congestion in any city. They generally clog shortly after they open, because local elected officials happily OK just about any development proposed anywhere along the route -- thus packing the outerbelt with what is, essentially, local traffic. That's one important reason I-485's southern leg is so congested. Mecklenburg County commissioners, plus municipal officials in Charlotte, Pineville and Matthews, pretty much let any developer who wanted to build anything do so.

What we need, instead of widening 485, is about 10 more connector streets besides 485, N.C. 51 and the handful of others.

Indeed, old-timers remember when the outerbelt was first proposed back in the 1960s, its rationale was more openly stated in those innocent times. It was "to open land for development." Transportation rationalizations came much later, after developers had already snapped up the land along the route.

Hardly any local transportation professionals believed the outerbelt was necessary, longtime local transportation planner Bill Coxe told me more than a decade ago. But knowing the powers pushing it, they didn't openly oppose it. "That bulldozer was way too big for anybody to get down in front of,'' Coxe told me.

I remember in 1998, hearing Harry West, the longtime director of the Atlanta Regional Commission, who had seen how Atlanta's Perimeter Highway pushed that city's sprawl. Speaking about I-485, he told a Charlotte conference sponsored by, among other groups, the Charlotte Chamber: "If I thought you would listen to me, I'd tell you not to build it.''

Obviously, we didn't listen to him. And we still aren't.

USDOT a Ponzi scheme?

This just in: U.S. Transportation System is a giant Ponzi scheme.

OK, it's an April Fool's joke (sort of) by the clever folks at the Project for Public Spaces. The "Faking Places" newsletter today has these other headlines:

-- How football stadiums can be transformed into vital community places.
-- Get your kicks on I-95: USDOT announces "Roads with Character" initiative.
And my favorite:
-- Ice rink tops list of amenities proposed by residents of Hell.

McCrory's next project?

I hate to interrupt the great comment thread going on at "Developers bend city official's ear" but here goes:

Hizzoner Pat McCrory stopped by the paper today to talk about what he plans to do with his remaining eight months in office. Headlines: Economic development [recruit more companies to bring more jobs], city spending [try to cut what needs to be cut in the city budget], public safety [he's against crime and supports the police chief]. Motherhood and apple pie were probably on the list too.

But near the end of the conversation he talked about having recently gone to Atlanta for an event sponsored by Georgia Tech, to look at mega-regions. There's a lot of theorizing going on among people who study city and metro region growth that county and state lines are all but irrelevant if you look at how economies work. It's essentially the "Citistates" theory of folks such as Neal Peirce and Curtis Johnson. Now folks are talking about mega-regions. One mega-region, dubbed "CharLanta," is the urbanized crescent running from Atlanta through Greenville-Spartanburg, S.C., Charlotte, the N.C. Triad and on to the Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill Triangle area.

McCrory said he and Atlanta Mayor Shirley Franklin agreed to try to get a project going, possibly with Georgia Tech and UNC Charlotte, to look at "the bigger picture vision thing."

Now I've not always agreed with McCrory, but in transportation, he's usually on target or pretty darn close, in terms of what's needed. And he's right about the need to look long-term and big picture.

One major need in the CharLanta corridor: Better passenger rail service. A significant attribute that sets apart the DC-to-Boston corridor is its clearly superior rail service. The whole Southeast region ought to get together and make the world's best pitch, to anyone in D.C. who will listen, that it's our turn for some of those rail dollars. After all, North Carolina got shafted in the federal transit-stimulus-divvying formula.

I don't know how McCrory plans to spend his time post-mayorship, but working to put a mega-region coalition together might well be a project in need of a champion.

Developers bend city official's ear

I wish I could tell you what was discussed at 7:45 a.m. today, when the Charlotte Chamber's Land Use committee (a committee of real estate, development and related business people) met with Deputy City Manager Ron Kimble. But I was told I wasn't welcome.

On the agenda, according to an e-mail last week from Natalie English, the Chamber's senior vice president for business and education advocacy: "Collin Brown [a lawyer] with K&L Gates will present specific examples of the cumulative impacts of the Post Construction Control Ordinance, the Urban Street Design Guidelines policy and the Proposed Amendment to the Tree Ordinance. Please plan to attend to participate in the discussion with Ron Kimble about how we might affect the impact these ordinances have on economic development, affordable housing and development in our community."

The post-construction controls ordinance is a water-quality protection measure. The urban street design guidelines (policy, but not embedded into ordinances yet) aim to make city streets walkable and would require more streets and more street trees, among other things. The proposed change to the tree ordinance would strengthen tree-save requirements for commercial property developers.

The Chamber, English told me last week -- when she was, in a very friendly and polite way telling me I couldn't come this morning -- is concerned that the proposed tree ordinance changes, on top of the post-construction controls ordinance and the street design guidelines, would "drastically impact the ability to grow the economy."

The Land Use committee chair, Karla Knotts, is also interim executive director of the Real Estate and Building Industry Coalition (REBIC). REBIC and some members of the Land Use committee had asked the Chamber to oppose the proposed tree ordinance changes.

Clearly, putting more requirements on developers will increase the costs of development and construction. That means what gets built would A) Cost more to buyers, OR B) Mean developers wouldn't offer as much money to buy land to start with. Both results have been known to occur, depending on the location, the market, etc. But regardless, the marginal difference in building cost isn't the villain in today's horrific real estate and building slowdown.

Nor would the real estate market here miraculously revive if only developers could offer product a bit more cheaply, with narrow sidewalks and no street trees, its runoff still allowed to pollute local creeks, and just as many trees being cut down as is allowed today.

Here's the painful reality, painful to everyone in this area, because none of us likes to see businesses hurting: The developers' potential customers are losing their jobs, health insurance, and even their homes to foreclosure, or they can't sell their existing homes. Financing agencies, including banks, are struggling to offer credit because the finance system is full of toxic loans. That's the problem developers are facing. It isn't the tree ordinance.

Pols brave danger to walk down sidewalk

(CDOT staffers negotiate narrow, debris-filled sidewalk during Monday tour)

We all survived the walk down Woodlawn Road in mid-afternoon. We even managed to cross Woodlawn in safety after waiting several minutes for a gap in traffic. But ... there was an incident. More later.

Council members Anthony Foxx, Michael Barnes, Susan Burgess, Patsy Kinsey and Nancy Carter (all but Kinsey members of the Transportation Committee) went for a tour by the city's DOT staff to show some pedestrian issues. It's part of the Pedestrian Plan, which CDOT planners are drafting and hope to give to council for approval in the next few months.

A big issue is uncomfortable, uninviting back-of-curb sidewalks along major thoroughfares. So we all walked about a quarter mile up Woodlawn.

Here's a report on the "incident": Shortly after we start, near Preston Townhomes at Woodlawn and Scaleybark, a black Jeep Cherokee zips past (speed limit is 35 mph, but most drivers appear to be ignoring that) and someone inside chunks a drink cup out the window. It hits Foxx and splashes Kinsey. No harm done, though it was rattling.

Only Barnes, Kinsey and CDOT planner Dan Gallagher dashed across Woodlawn at Bayberry Drive in order to see the much nicer sidewalk built at the townhouse-style Oak Leaf development across the street. The rest of us had to wait to cross until a couple of school buses set a pick for us, essentially stopping the oncoming traffic so we could safely get to the other side.

The point CDOT was making was that developments such as Oak Leaf, which needed a rezoning, don't get that OK unless they fix the bad, back-of-curb sidewalks. Plus, many of the newer zoning categories require better sidewalks. But so-called "by-right" development -- in which the land already carries the zoning needed for the development -- doesn't have to do anything about sidewalks.

CDOT is offering for consideration the idea of changing local ordinances, so developments such as Preston Flats and Preston Townhomes would have to update bad sidewalks, the way Oak Leaf did. After all, as CDOT pedestrian advocate Vivian Coleman pointed out, Preston Flats had to do significant grading of the site, for the construction. Pouring a new sidewalk would not have been onerous. As it is, though, any sidewalk improvement would come out of city coffers.

Want more pedestrian info? See the CDOT page of links to pedestrian organizations, ordinances, etc.

Politicians risking lives? Stay tuned

At 3 p.m. today a bunch of Charlotte City Council members and assorted others (including yours truly) will possibly risk their lives by walking on one of those cruddy back-of-curb sidewalks along Woodlawn Road, where traffic whizzes by at 50 mph, inches from your body. And then we'll be invited -- try not to gasp in horror -- to cross the street. Note: Woodlawn has no lights or crosswalks between Scaleybark and South Boulevard, almost a full mile. So if you need to get to the other side, you just dash.

The purpose: Show the politicians how pedestrian-UN-friendly some of today's existing development standards are.

Let us all hope no elected officials get squashed like bugs on the street. As we have seen in recent months, filling seats of elected officials (e.g., county sheriff, school board) can be messy and ugly. We would just as soon not be put through that again this year.

Why do the sidewalks tour? CDOT is working on a Pedestrian Plan which it hopes to put to council for a vote later this year. The plan (in its current draft) would recommend studying changes to ordinances in order to require back-of-curb sidewalks be improved if there's a substantial development on a site, and that infill/teardown development be required to install sidewalks. There's probably going to be opposition from the developers' lobby. This is a way to help present the other side of the issue to the council members.

Small note: Technically the sidewalks on Woodlawn are not all back-of-curb. There's a minuscule planting strip of perhaps 12 inches weedy grass-like foliage.

I'll be taking photos. If anyone is turned into a grease spot on the pavement, don't say you weren't warned.

'First Garden' to sprout at White House

Alice Waters and other sustainable food advocates must have been persuasive. The Obamas are planning a veggie garden on the White House lawn, says the Washington Post.

Yes, it will include arugula. No, it isn't the first such garden. President John Adams, the first president to live in the White House, planted a garden. Eleanor Roosevelt planted a Victory Garden during World War II. The last true farmer in the White House, Jimmy Carter, wouldn't plant a vegetable garden – not even a peanut patch.

The New York Times even shows a schematic of what will be planted in what patch in the garden.

But will we see the First Family out digging up wild onions and Bermuda grass or shoo-ing the First Squirrels away from the First Tomatoes? We await further developments.

Lester Maddox lives on, in MARTA woes

(The late Lester Maddox, above)

Check this out, from the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, about MARTA's budget problems.

The ghost of Lester Maddox -- the ax-handle-toting, proudly segregationist Georgia politician -- is with us still, in the form of a provision that's hamstringing MARTA's efforts to deal with the downturn in sales tax receipts due to the recession. (The photo above is Maddox in 2001.)

It seems that way back when MARTA was being formed, then-Lt. Gov. Maddox ensured that a provision in state law would prevent the subway-transit system from using more than 50 percent of its revenues for operations. MARTA wants the legislature to remove those restrictions.

Charlotte's transit system is in no way perfect, but we in the Queen City should thank our lucky stars the city didn't have to try to placate politicians who were quite as antediluvian as Lester Maddox. (Though to be fair to Georgia I could, of course, name some Charlotte names of folks who lacked only for ax handles ...)

Assessing Charlotte's transportation

(The city adopted a bicycle plan last year to help riders such as this)

This is for transportation policy wonks, among others. The city of Charlotte's transportation department has issued its yearly report on how the city is doing on its Transportation Action Plan. Here's a link, if you'd like to read it in full.

The good stuff: The city adopted a Bicycle Plan, and the light rail ridership substantially outstripped its projections.

But there's cause for concern: Despite new city policies, more attention to pedestrians and requirements for building more sidewalks, the percentage of city residents who live within a quarter mile of schools, parks and transit is lower now than in 2004. Of course, that may have as much to do with the lack of neighborhood parks and with school-siting decisions than with whether sidewalks are adequate.

Here are some "issues and challenges" identified in the report (their wording, not mine):
- The percentage of population within ¼ mile of schools, parks and transit is lower today than in 2004, making access by walking, bicycling, and short vehicle trips less viable.
- The percentage of multifamily units being approved in the wedges [not near the transit or major business corridors] is higher than the land use targets called for in the Centers, Corridors and Wedges growth framework.
- NCDOT’s project designs typically do not reflect Charlotte’s urban needs (for example Mallard Creek Extension).
- Gas tax revenues at the federal and state levels continue to decline, reducing the funds available for building and maintaining roads.
- ½-cent sales tax revenues for transit are lower than anticipated.
- Without a local dedicated transportation funding source, at levels consistent with the TAP, Charlotte will struggle to keep pace with continued growth and increased travel demand.

Here are some of the accomplishments the plan notes (again, their wording):

- Charlotte residents passed $160M+ in transportation bonds during 2008.
- Key road and intersection projects were advanced as depicted in Map 1.
- LYNX Blue Line averaged over 15,000 daily riders in its first year of service.
- The Committee of 21 [a local group] and the 21st Century Transportation Committee [a state group] convened and identified transportation revenue options to address transportation needs at the state and local levels.
- Both the Federal Highway Administration and the North Carolina American Planning Association honored the TAP as a model plan.
- Council adopted the City of Charlotte Bicycle Plan.

Politics vs. planning

I've had this bit in my notebook for a week, and finally have time to write about it:

Mayor Pat McCrory was right – but wrong – at last week's City Council meeting (March 9) when he badgered a planner about why planners removed a street connection from the Arrowood Transit Station Area plan.

He was right to question it and to say city planners should give their best professional planning judgment, not bow to political pressure. (At least, that's what I think he was trying to point out. And I must note that many elected officials get similarly huffy when planners act oblivious to political reality. But I digress...)

But McCrory shouldn't have hectored planner Alberto Gonzalez, who was presenting the plan.
In fact, Gonzalez ended up fainting or passing out – apparently because he hadn't eaten for some time – which made the scene even more dramatic.

The staff had originally proposed a street connection from Sharon Lakes Road to Hill Road. But neighbors in Starmount didn't like that idea. (See my Feb. 28 column, "Aiming at where the future will be," about connectivity.)

So, Gonzalez told the council, "We went back and took a closer look." And they deleted that street connection. Their thinking, he said, was that such connections are made when property is developed or redeveloped, and since the property in question was relatively newly developed, it wasn't realistic to think it would be redeveloped again any time in the near future.

McCrory wouldn't let him off the hook. He said, in essence, "Your job is to give us the planning perspective, not make judgments about what will or won't fly politically." So, he continued, was your recommendation during the public hearing incorrect? The poor planner was going to have to say, "Yes, we were wrong," or "Yes, we caved politically." I can't remember at what point he blacked out. It might have been right about then.

Warren Cooksey hopped into the discussion to note that the plan should probably have the connections that planners think are needed, because a redevelopment might occur even if it is, today, deemed unlikely, and you'd want that street connection to be in the plan.

The upshot: The City Council adopted the plan with only Cooksey voting against. The mayor doesn't have a vote on those matters. Here's a link that will let you look at the Draft Plan and the revisions. The original street connection proposed is on Page 13 of the Draft Plan.

Feeling parched?

A few years back I heard local Democrat-about-town David Erdman give a talk on Charlotte geography, which included this memorable nugget: southern Mecklenburg County is the hottest, driest part of the state. He had rainfall and temperature maps to prove the point.

I'm reminded of that, looking at the map accompanying this USA Today story that the first two months of 2009 are the driest on record in this country. (Figures that the year of horrible news would include a huge drought as well.) Note on the map how the only part of North Carolina in the red, "extreme drought" zone is -- surprise! -- not southern Mecklenburg. Looks more like Rutherford, Polk and Cleveland counties, where there are, indeed, farmers who need the rain instead of city- and suburban-dwellers who just want lawns.

Which brings me to my two points:

1. First, patronize local farmers because it's smarter, long-range, to ensure that we have a good food supply in this part of the country and don't have to depend on veggies trucked in from California and other faraway places. If you want to "save open space" and "preserve farmland" then for pete's sake, think about preserving farmers as well. Here's a link to a column I wrote on the topic in November.

2. And second, what's with watering the lawn all summer? It's a huge waste of a precious resource. If you have fescue grass -- which most people here do -- it naturally goes dormant in hot weather and will revive in the fall. Water it every 2 or 3 weeks to keep it from dying. If you see someone with a green lawn in July, you're looking at someone wasting our water.

Chamber stays home. What should they see?

As I wrote in the Saturday Observer, the Charlotte Chamber isn't going on an inter-city visit this year, opting to stay home and study what's here. I gave some suggestions for what they should do and see, such as have a locavore dinner and hear from artists and people with lots of piercings.

But what would you recommend they see? (And for the purposes of this blogposting, let's all assume those who wish to have already visited whatever topless bars they care to.) If you want to vote on the Chamber's online poll, here's a link.


Chatting with Chamber president Bob Morgan, I asked if he, too had observed more people uptown dressing more formally? Just in the past several months, it seems, I've seen more guys in suits and ties and fewer in khakis and knit shirts or jeans and sport shirts. Morgan said he'd noticed the same thing. We speculated people afraid of being laid off are dressing up more, and those already laid off are trying to look professional as they look for new work.


Then, he noted something else. In conversations he's hearing, he said, "It's no longer about work-life balance. It's now about 'work ethic.' "


Not unexpected, of course. When times get tough, companies want workers who'll put in long hours, not whine about pay/benefits and not have to deal with those pesky "family" problems such as sick kids or ailing parents.

Where are all the foreclosures?

A USA Today story last week uses data from RealtyTrac to show that more than half of the nation's foreclosures last year took place in just 35 counties, in about a dozen states. Outside those foreclosure hot spots, the article says, "the foreclosure wave was barely a ripple — at least until it started swamping major banks that had invested heavily in mortgages." Wachovia, it points out, was hammered by foreclosures in California and Florida. And we all know the rest.

Do gates really keep out crime?

Charlotte-Mecklenburg Planning Director Debra Campbell tells me city planners and the city-county police department will study crime rates in and around gated communities to see if the gates really do reduce crime. (So, will they also be looking at crimes such as tax fraud, insider trading or Ponzi scheming? If you've lost your retirement savings, you might consider those white-collar offenses worse than just simple auto break-ins.)

Campbell said at a recent City Council meeting that the city doesn't currently have a policy about gated developments, although its street connectivity policies would discourage them. Planners generally think gated subdivisions work against such things as a sense of community, social capital and mixed-income neighborhoods, in addition to bollixing up general traffic flow.

It's a welcome attempt. Gated developments derive much of their popularity from the general belief that they're safer. Maybe they are, maybe they aren't. I know we have often vacationed at a gated beach community, in which there are gated developments inside the gated development. So, um, if you need those extra gates, does that mean the first set of gates doesn't work? Who, exactly, are you trying to keep out? If it's that journalistic riffraff, well, the gates aren't working.

Commuter rail: Finally?

A couple of rail-related news bits:

Item No. 1: Why hasn't much commuter rail been built in the country in recent years? The Bush administration's Federal Transit Administration had written some requirements for how to calculate such things as projected ridership when submitting requests for federal transit money. It's complicated, but the upshot was that the rules made it impossible for commuter rail -- which goes faster and has fewer stops than in-town light rail -- to compete for the limited federal transit dollars.

That's why the North Corridor transit line that the Charlotte Area Transit System wants to build had that "gap" in its funding plan -- it's the gap where federal funds might have gone, but weren't available. The Triangle Transit Authority in Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill was stuck for the same reason.

Now comes word the FTA has rescinded those old parameters, CATS chief Keith Parker said late last week. He didn't know yet what the new parameters would be or whether new money would be available for commuter rail projects. But it's got to be good news for CATS and the many people who've been hoping to see a rail line from uptown Charlotte to Davidson and even beyond, if Iredell County would cough up some money (not to mention good news for the TTA and our fellow North Carolinians in the Triangle.)

Item No. 2: A new Elon University poll finds 77 percent of North Carolinians would like to see commuter rail developed in urban areas, and 69 percent support regional rail systems.

While 51 percent of North Carolinians oppose collecting tolls to fund
statewide transportation projects, 77 percent would like to see commuter
railways developed in urban areas and 69 percent of citizens support regional
rail systems. Sixty-seven percent of respondents support a state-wide bond
referendum to raise money for transportation projects, while 57 percent of
residents support giving local governments the option of using a half-cent sales
tax to finance local projects. Residents oppose a fee based on the number of
miles they drive annually (74%) and increasing the cost of the driver’s license
renewal fee (55%).

Poll: New roads don't top preference list

Interesting poll out from the National Association of Realtors and the advocacy group, Transportation for America, finds a majority of Americans believe upgrading and repairing existing roads and bridges and expanding transportation options (i.e. transit, bicycling and pedestrian options) should take precedence over building new roads.

A press release from the Realtors' association says: "When asked about approaches to addressing traffic, 47 percent preferred improving public transportation, 25 percent chose building communities that encourage people not to drive, and 20 percent preferred building new roads. Fifty-six percent of those surveyed believe the federal government is not devoting enough attention to trains and light rail systems, and three out of four favor improving intercity rail and transit."

You can download a PDF of the full report here.

Frank Gehry at 80

Big-name architect Frank Gehry turned 80 on Saturday, and the L.A. Times ran a profile and assessment of his work, from architecture critic Christopher Hawthorne. (Gehry's Disney Hall in Los Angeles is at left, courtesy of the L.A. Times.)

The recession has hit his practice hard: Two major projects, Grand Avenue in Los Angeles and Atlantic Yards in Brooklyn, have been put on hold, and Gehry has half the staff he did a year ago. Interestingly, the piece points out that the reputation of the once-hailed Gehry is shifting.

" ... The virtuosic approach to design that Gehry has embodied since his Guggenheim Museum in Bilbao, Spain, opened to rapturous acclaim in 1997 faces an increasingly pointed critique within his profession."

And it has this interesting rumination about younger architects' view of Gehry' work and that of other celebrity architects:

"They are less interested in the bravura, photogenic icons that Gehry has lately produced – so-called signature buildings by a so-called starchitect – and more compelled by eco-friendly designs or anti-poverty efforts such as those aimed at providing affordable housing in rural areas. Other young architects are looking beyond the star model of architectural practice and toward communal, even anonymous, design initiatives."

NYC banning traffic on Broadway

(Photos show Herald Square before and after, courtesy of www.nyc.gov)

New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg announced this week he'll bar auto traffic from several blocks of Broadway. It's a way to try to reduce congestion in the Times Square and Herald Square areas. While it may sound like a crackpot idea, there's some counterintuitive evidence that, in other cities where streets were barred to traffic, the overall traffic did, in fact, diminish. Newsweek has a rather in-depth article on the proposal and the underlying thinking.

The New York Times web site has a kind of pro-con debate among urban observers such as architect/planner Alex Garvin and the Cato Institute's Randal O'Toole.

Conventional wisdom in the U.S. has been that pedestrian malls didn't work – cities that tried them gave them up. Even our own Rock Hill, which turned its downtown into a covered-roof shopping mall, eventually had to pop the top and revert to a more traditional downtown, complete with sky, clouds, rain and sun.

But, as the Newsweek article points out, New York is unique among U.S. cities, due to its population density, rigid street grid, high proportion of residents without cars and excellent public transit services. It's certainly an idea worth watching. That said, Charlotte doesn't have density, a grid or extensive transit, so anything learned from the NYC experiment isn't likely to be applicable here, regardless.

Perdue: N.C. DOT office stays in Stanly

In one of those Relics From Another Era kind of situations, the N.C. DOT's regional office in the Charlotte area is not in the city of 670,000 but in the lovely Piedmont city of Albemarle, population 15,000, in bucolic Stanly County.
Charlotte officials aren't the only ones who think that's a little nuts. The District 10 office covers Mecklenburg, Stanly, Union, Anson and Cabarrus counties. All, of course, have legitimate DOT needs and issues. But come on.
But WCNC reports, Gov. Bev Perdue isn't thinking of moving that office to Charlotte. "Right now, I'm just thankful to not be closing offices down," Perdue said when asked about the Department of Transportation’s office for the Charlotte region.
And why, you may ask, Stanly County? Old-timers say it's because, in an earlier era, the road department offices were put in counties with state prisons, so they could more easily use prisoners to work on the road gangs.

CATS to join Google Transit

Google has a transit-finding component to Google Maps, and starting soon, the Charlotte Area Transit System (a.k.a. CATS) will be a part of the service.
You'll be able to look online, click on where you are on the map, click on where you want to go, and you can get transit directions. Just like driving directions.

CATS chief Keith Parker says the program uses CATS routes and and schedules, so it will tell you when the bus or Lynx is supposed to arrive, but won't be able to say, for example, Bus 20 is running 20 minutes late.

CATS isn't spending money on this, he said. Google does it.

If you go to the link above, or try transit.google.com, right now, you'll see a big map of the U.S., with no transit options offered in North and South Carolina. Hmm, you'd think Amtrak might want to at least load its passenger service into this.

This news came via a tip from Harry Johnson. Check out his Carolina Transit blog.

An addendum: In giving it a test run, I checked for directions from our house to the Dowd Y on Morehead St. No transit directions (yet), but there is an option for walking directions. I got the walking directions, but also a caution note popped: "Use caution – This route may be missing sidewalks or pedestrian paths." So very Charlotte.

Bits: Trails, transportation, go-go-suburbia

A few quick links of interest:

The Carolina Thread Trail project recently got its 100th Resolution of Support -- from the Town of Wingate in Union County. That represents at least one entity from every county within the 15-county footprint. The Thread Trail is a proposed regional network of trails, including greenways, riverside trails and conservation corridors. Local communities plan and build their own portions.

Derrick Jackson of the Boston Globe writes about The Transformation of Transportation -- big increases in transit ridership all over the country, and opines that it makes more sense to put federal dollars into transit systems than to prop up auto companies that are eliminating jobs.

NationalJournal.com talks with new Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood. LaHood says high-speed rail between cities is, if not No. 1 on President Obama's priority list, then near the top. He predicted a substantial effort (read, "money") in coming years in five or six regions of the country, beyond the $8 billion in the stimulus package that just passed Congress.

David Brooks' recent N.Y. Times piece, "I Dream of Denver," (it ran last Thursday in The Observer) provoked tons of discussion. Interestingly, in Brooks' speech in Raleigh on Feb. 10 he challenged the viability of the suburbs. "The era of go-go suburbia -- it's obviously over now," he said. People wanted the big house, the big yard, but found out there weren't enough social bonds, he said. Suburbia, he says, "ignored key parts of human nature."

But his column took a differnt tack. Here are a couple of responses, one from "Joe Urban," A.K.A. Sam Newberg in Minneapolis, one from Ben Fried on streetsblog.
Here's a link to the Pew Center report Brooks cites.

Helicopter guy rebuffed on rezoning

Quick update on the council action, regarding the proposed solar-energy building on Park Road, whose developer would be the fellow in the much-loved "rogue helicopter" video.

The council members set a new land speed record in turning it down 12-0. Because there was a protest petition in force by adjoining property owners, even the mayor got to help vote it down.

See the post below, or click here, for more information and the video.

But will solar palace have a helicopter pad?

Will the helicopter guy appear again before City Council? Tonight, the council is supposed to decide on a rezoning that's been getting a lot of, well, snickering in private. What people are saying, all off the record of course, is: "Watch the helicopters video." If you do a YouTube search on the petitioner's name, David Thompson, and "helicopters" you'll get a video of a City Council public hearing from Jan. 28, 2002.

I hear it's one of the "greatest hits" around City Hall.

(4:48 PM addendum: It's come to my attention that longtime devotees of this video might like to read the actual minutes from the council meeting where the helicopter guy appeared. Here's a link. Check Page 11. I also hear some Charlotte folks have memorized the guy's speech and recite it at parties.)

Here's a link to a story when the project was first proposed last summer. And here's a link to an artist's rendering of the finished project. The idea is for a 12-unit multifamily building that would maximize solar energy principles. The proposal "is consistent with adopted land use plans and policies," the planning staff analysis says. But they're recommending against an OK, because of "the 60-foot height and the architecture associated with the project."

It does bring up an interesting issue: If a project is consistent with the plans, should the council vote it down because it's ugly or because of any questions about the developer? I asked assistant city attorney Bob Hagemann, who said rezoning decisions are considered "legislative" and in such a decision they can "exercise their legislative judgment and discretion."

(One more thing, in this update. Some commenters think this posting is about solar energy or area plans. Um, folks, just watch the video. MN)

Here is the YouTube video. Note: The title isn't mine. It's from the video on YouTube.com:

Sprawl's dipping into your pocketbook

People just don't realize how much extra tax money must be spent because of the sprawling development patterns, not just in Charlotte and North Carolina, but around the country. Consider connected streets, and their role in easing expenditures for roads and for emergency services.

It's clear that connecting streets – whether with a rigid grid or more curving street patterns such as Charlotte's John Nolen-designed Myers Park neighborhood – relieves thoroughfares of some portion of their traffic. Yes, each neighborhood street gets a bit more traffic. But if they're well-designed, narrow enough to discourage speeding, have adequate sidewalks, bike lanes and/or on-street parking (or all of the above) traffic moves slowly and poses little burden for residents.

Meanwhile, thoroughfares need not carry as much traffic (or be widened or resurfaced as often). When there's an accident or other problem on a thoroughfare, motorists have plenty of options for alternate routes.

Yes, it costs developers a bit more to build a street grid than a cul-de-sac subdivision, and the extra streets reduce the number of lots and buildings a developer can squeeze onto the land. But for taxpayers, it ought to be a no-brainer.

But connecting streets can have some other, unexpected benefits for municipal coffers. Here's an intriguing study from Charlotte’s transportation and fire department staff that finds fire station costs sharply lower in parts of town where streets connect.

The study analyzed eight stations and found those in connected neighborhoods can serve more square miles because they can reach more homes within acceptable response times. The Dilworth station can serve 14 square miles. The station in the cul-de-sac-laden Highland Creek area can cover only 8 square miles.

The study found the annualized per-household life cycle cost of the Dilworth station to be $159. The equivalent cost for the station in the Highland Creek area was $740 – almost five times more.

Charlotte Department of Transportation staff who worked on the study included Matt Magnasco, Steven Castongia and Katie Templeton. Fire Department staff included Benny Warwick and Rachel Pillar. Magnasco tells me it hasn't yet been published or peer-reviewed, but they're working to get it into shape for that. The PowerPoint presentation linked to above was for a Congress for the New Urbanism transportation conference in Charlotte last last year.

Obama's urban affairs guy

President Obama has finally chosen his long-promised director of urban affairs, a guy from the Bronx named Adolfo Carrión. Carrión is Bronx Borough president, has a master's in urban planning from Hunter College and was a minister and public school teacher before going to grad school. Born in Manhattan of Puerto Rican descent, he's president of the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials. (Wonder if he knows Dan Ramirez, the ex-Mecklenburg County commissioner?)

This Washington Post story has Carrión saying what his focus will be: He wants cities to become economic centers that can pull the country out of a recession and improve American competitiveness in a global market, according to the Post.

Here's a quote, from a 2007 speech, reported in the New York Times Dec. 3, 2008:

• "We can't keep throwing money at a housing policy that concentrates poor families in massive housing projects and hopes for the best. We can't keep wishing kids into success by simply declaring that no child will be left behind. We must stop treating the poor as laboratory subjects that we tinker with in our pricey think tanks and universities."

Another New Yorker, Derek Douglas, was named special assistant to the president for urban affairs. Douglas was N.Y. Gov. David Paterson's counsel in Washington and director of his Washington office, overseeing federal policy development and advocacy on domestic, economic and urban policy issues for New York.

Good for Obama for recognizing that cities are -- shock! -- important to the health of the nation and that cities probably need some champions in high places. But why does it look as though Obama thinks New York is the only city that can provide that expertise? What about Houston, Los Angeles, Chicago, Boston, Miami, et al?

Got vacancies? Try artists

It's a continuing problem in Charlotte: Neighborhood gentrification (e.g. NoDa), combined with relentless and wasteful demolition of old buildings shrinks the spaces for artists, even while the city's arts community is trying to grow. And while the role of the arts in redeveloping ailing neighborhoods gets much lip service, the city and its major NGOs (non-governmental organizations, for the non-wonks reading) haven't succeeded in doing much to help provide housing.

Here's a piece about a program run through the Boston Redevelopment Authority, that uses the affordable-housing requirement for large projects (and note that it's a REQUIREMENT) as well other city-offered incentives. (Interesting factoid: The BRA director is John Palmieri, who from 2002 to 2004 was the City of Charlotte's director of economic development.)

Note this line in the linked-to piece above: "Boston already requires that at least 15 percent of units in large new residential buildings be priced based on income limits."

Hmmm. The recently released "Housing Charlotte 2007 Implementation Committee" had a subcommittee to look at that kind of idea, called "inclusionary zoning," but the name of the subcommittee was "Incentive-Based Inclusionary Housing Policies." A mole on the committee tells me anytime anyone mentioned anything about "mandatory" they were reprimanded and told the recommendation would be for only "incentive-based" techniques (i.e. voluntary).

Kiosk sales at malls -- too aggressive?

In the category of not-earth-shaking but sorta interesting is this, which I learned while looking up other things:

You know those Dead Sea Salt kiosks at SouthPark (and probably other malls around here) where the young women practically tackle you to get you to try their lotion or whatever it is?
It seems they're controversial in the shopping mall biz, because A) they really tick off a lot of customers, but B) make lots of sales which makes landlords happy.
The Natick Collection outside Boston is one of several upscale shopping malls that have cracked down. Wish they'd do so here, as well.

CEOs competent? Read this.

I have to leap in, responding to the comment thread about empty cities.

To the commenter who speculated that CEOs' jobs should be the ones automated, you've got to love this Time magazine piece looking at scientific experiments that find that -- guess what? -- the people who are likely to be rated as competent sometimes aren't at all. What they are is talkers. A tidbit:

"Dominant individuals behaved in ways that made them appear competent," the researchers write, "above and beyond their actual competence." Troublingly, group members seemed only too willing to follow these underqualified bosses. An overwhelming 94% of the time, the teams used the first answer anyone shouted out — often giving only perfunctory consideration to others that were offered.

And yes, Ken Lewis is eligible for the $500,000 salary cap, say our banking experts. Most of the cap applies to companies that take bailout money going forward, but B of A is in a special category, they say.

Worried about nature-deprived kids?

Plenty of folks worry that today's children don't get to spend much time outdoors, and that such an existence harms their health, including physically, emotionally, socially and intellectually.

A group called N.C. CAN! (North Carolina Children and Nature) is holding its second annual gathering tomorrow, Feb. 18, at the N.C. Zoo.

The group is one of many inspired by Richard Louv's writings, "Leave No Child Inside," and his book "Last Child in the Woods," about what he dubs "nature-deficit disorder."


For more information about the gathering or N.C. CAN!, contact Kathy Bull at kbull@nczoo.com or 336-879-7286.

The emptiest N.C. city?

North Carolina's emptiest city, according to Forbes magazine, is:

A. Charlotte

B. Durham

C. Lenoir

D. Greensboro

Answer:

D. This article in Forbes says it's Greensboro, which landed at No. 4 on its list of America's Emptiest Cities.

The ranking is based on fourth-quarter info from the Census Bureau, looking at rental and homeowner vacancies in the nation's 75 largest metropolitan statistical areas. The Charlotte-Gastonia-Concord MSA ranks No. 15, tied with Cincinnati.

Not surprisingly, Detroit ranks No. 2. But No. 1 this year is Las Vegas, the recently booming Western gambling mecca.

And Asheboro, home of the N.C. Zoo (see zoo lions depicted at right), hit Forbes' list of the Fastest-Dying Towns, landing at No. 4, behind Kokomo, Ind. That measure looked at income growth, the rate of domestic in-migration, the change in poverty and the percentage of the population with a bachelor's degree or higher for places 20,000 to 65,000 population. And there's no stimulus money available for zoos. They're among the things (swimming pools and aquariums are others) specifically ineligible for stimulus money. Geez.

But there's hope for other N.C. cities. Look for Ken Lewis, now that his pay is limited to $500K, to be house hunting in the Capital City, City of Oaks, our very own Raleigh, which hit No. 2 on Forbes' list of Best Cities to Live on $500,000.

About that Home Depot Design Center

That Home Depot Design Center that's closing at the Metropolitan development near uptown? The graphic above probably explains all. It gives some international context on retail in America. (Courtesy of James Howard Kunstler, via Andres Duany, via Brenda who works at the Duany Plater-Zyberk office in Charlotte). If you can't read the fine print, the information is from "Shopping Centers Today."

And why do I fear there would be a similarly configured chart of "credit card debt per capita" or even "high-fructose corn syrup consumption per person"?

OK, back to work. Be sure to read tomorrow's Viewpoint Page in the Observer. I can't reveal yet what will be on it but it will have excellently written headlines. And a sublime Buzz. I hope.

'Great State of Mecklenburg' – Not dead yet

Don't ever let people tell you the idea of the Great State of Mecklenburg is dead. If it was, it was just raised from the dead by Anita Brown-Graham of the Institute for Emerging Issues at N.C. State. In introducing state Sen. Dan Clodfelter, D-Mecklenburg, who's moderating a panel, she (of course!) said:

"He is from the Great State of Mecklenburg, then he moved to the Great State of North Carolina."

I spent the first 20 years of living in Charlotte just chuckling at the term. After all, Charlotteans do tend to be a bit more self-absorbed. But 20 years is enough. Now I think it's demeaning.

I mean, is any part of North Carolina more self-absorbed than the Triangle? In Charlotte, not being the state government center or higher education center, you ALWAYS have to think about what's happening in Raleigh. In Raleigh, unless you're thinking about finance, you may well never have a need to think about Charlotte.

N.C. – A metro state or a rural state?

Live-blogging again from "North Carolina: The Good Growth State," in Raleigh, N.C. State's Emerging Issues Forum. You can listen in here.

Brookings Institution's Bruce Katz is speaking now. He's not nearly as wittily satirical as N.Y. Times pundit David Brooks, who opened this morning with a great disquisition on "go-go suburbia." But it's stern good medicine for all N.C. policy- and law-makers to hear:

"There is no such thing as the North Carolina economy or the American economy."

Katz's key points:

• Despite the economic trauma we're living through, the economic fundamentals haven't changed: The drivers of an economy are metro-region economies.
• We have no national economy. We have a network of metro economies.
• We don't have a national or state governance that recognizes that reality.
• National and state policies reward wasteful forms of development and policies. (More later about his comments on roads spending.)
  
• North Carolina is a metro state. It doesn't think of itself this way.

This is essential stuff for the state's leaders to hear. N.C. culture – once you get outside Charlotte – thinks of itself as a place of farms and small towns. The legislature and state government attitudes all accept this as truth. It's tradition, it's nostalgia and it distorts the way state resources and policies are used.

"I'm talking about a different way of thinking," Katz is saying, about economies and governance.

Duany: 'What do we do with this mess'?

The last of today's live blogging from the forum on North Carolina: Good Growth State, in Raleigh, put on by the N.C. State Institute for Emerging Issues. Disclosure: Not really live now, the forum's ended for the day and I lost my Internet connection about 3 p.m. ....

The day's last two speakers were Rand Wentworth, president of the Land Trust Alliance, a national group providing services to the nation's 1,500 land trusts, and New Urbanist architect/planner Andres Duany.

From Wentworth:

• North Carolina leads the nation in loss of farmland and open space.
• North Carolina's strongest draw for tourism is "scenery."
• In the future, the best-paying jobs will go where the most talented people want to live.
• The belief that new growth brings in enough revenue to pay for itself is "fool's gold."

Duany was trying to find silver linings in the bad economic situation. "So many certainties are broken," he said. "It's going to be a marvelous period for ideas."

He talked a lot about how to retrofit the post-1980s suburbs. "What do we do with this mess?" he asked. "They're going to be the albatross around our neck. Also the great possibility."
His pitch No. 1: Fill in the expanses of space at the fading malls with housing, offices, schools, churches, post offices, etc., and create town centers. They're all located at key intersections already, and so easier to serve with good bus or even rail transit service. Local governments should just grant the density needed to them, and allow as-of-right development (well, with a few rules), he said.

• Another pitch: Add mixed use at the entrances to subdivisions. Buy about six houses and the big "entrance sign" areas to build some multistory, multi-use buildings.
• No. 3: "You have to think of parking garages as 'infrastructure,' " he said, responding to the topic of the day. "I don't see what's so hard about that."

Good growth? Good grief!

More live blogging from the forum on North Carolina: Good Growth State, in Raleigh, put on by the N.C. State Institute for Emerging Issues.

At lunch we were to hear from N.C. Gov. Bev Perdue, on the topic "A New Vision for North Carolina." If I were an organizer of this forum I'd be livid. Turns out the guv's on vacation, and she sent in a video.

When they first put it up on the big screens, the sound wasn't working. We just saw Perdue's lips moving and her blue eyes sparkling and her expression one I might characterize as "caring engagement." Then they got the sound working. Here are some excerpts:

• "It takes bold leadership in a time of challenge."
• "We face all tasks head on."
• And she said, we must "position ourselves for prosperity."

I think we'd have thought more of that speech if we hadn't been able to hear it.

What CATS chief learned from London

More live blogging from the forum on North Carolina: Good Growth State, in Raleigh, put on by the N.C. State Institute for Emerging Issues.

Spotted in the audience or lobby: Rep. Ruth Samuelson, R-Mecklenburg, Charlotte DOT Chief Danny Pleasant, UNC Charlotte Urban Institute has several folks, including its director, Jeff Michael.

Keith Parker, CEO of the Charlotte Area Transit System, told me the biggest take-away for him, hearing the ex-mayor of London, Ken Livingstone, came when Livingstone described how London added lots of bus service between 2000 and 2004 and was able to attract millions more transit riders. The city targeted the middle-income workers, to try to lure them out of their cars.

Parker's heading back to Charlotte to give a presentation to the City Council this evening about
whether the city can or should fast track the proposed streetcar project that would run from Beatties Ford Road to Eastland Mall.

London or N.C, what's the diff?

London's ex-Mayor Ken Livinstone, nearing the end of his address, talking a little about how people in Europe were watching the November elections last fall:

Most people there, he said, had never heard of North Carolina until it got publicity for: A) Its very close Obama-McCain race, and B) the Senate race, with the Elizabeth Dole ad using hinted-at atheism to attack Kay Hagan.

"I came out as an atheist at the age of 12. It's never done me any harm politically," Livingstone said. "In London, no one cares. If you get the buses running on time, they don't care what you're doing in bed." (Wikipedia tells us he's had several affairs – with women – and is a noted bon vivant. Also, it deadpans: "He is known for his enthusiasm for keeping and breeding newts.^[11]" Presumably not of the Gingrich variety.)

Back to policy – A country can't borrow its way to prosperity, he said. You make money by making things and selling them, and shouldn't ever lose sight of that.

Live audio stream

Want to listen in to the discussion on whether N.C. is the Good Growth state?

The Emerging Issues Forum has both a live audio stream – here – and will have a virtual workshop 2-3 p.m. today. Also on the web site.

Right now CATS chief Keith Parker is introducing London ex-Mayor Ken Livingstone – Mr. Congestion Pricing Guru.

Lots of Big Names here: Ex State School Board Chairman and ex-Chapel Hill mayor Howard Lee just sat down next to me. He left though. Probably didn't want to be next to a blogger, and can't say as I blame him.

What, exactly, should US be stimulating?

Sen. Chris Dodd, D-Conn., at the N.C. State Emerging Issues Forum made cogent arguments for not just aiming for "shovel-ready" projects but "future ready" projects. He also pointed out (as if you hadn't heard) that the nation's infrastructure got graded mostly a D by the American Society of Civil Engineers. Where's the leadership for transformative projects, he asked, akin to the Erie Canal or the first transcontinental railroad, rural electrification or the interstate highway system?

For North Carolinians, two key points: He lavishly and extensively praised Charlotte's transit system, especially the way the city created incentives for transit-oriented development.

AND, he mentioned an idea from a Connecticut constituent: Build a high-speed transcontinental rail corridor from Long Beach, Calif., to Wilmington, N.C. That certainly got the attention of the North Carolinians in this room!

He pitched a major rail initiative – connecting the nation's major urban areas with high- or higher-speed rail – and let Detroit build the rail cars and buses the nation will need to refocus its transportation system to a more inclusive one – i.e., not just highways.

He pitched a National Infrastructure Bank, to create a new funding stream and competitive process. As it is, transportation in America is basically carried out by 50 states with 50 different plans.

In 2007, 10 billion trips were made on public transit. Yet the U.S. DOT pays for some 80 percent of new highway construction while less than half for new transit projects, and getting approval for new transit projects is "brutally different."

North Carolina: The Good Growth State?

Live from the Raleigh convention center: A two day forum sponsored by N.C. State about how North Carolina is dealing with growth.

First fun fact of the day: If they held another conference of this sort on Friday, in the same gigantic auditorium at the Raleigh Convention Center, and only let in people moved to the state this week, you could fill the room. (Assuming they wanted to attend, of course.)

Second fun fact of the day: They have these gizmos where you can vote and get instant results, and of the people here, a big plurality said they think North Carolina is on the right track for the future. Hmmmm. I voted no. Too pessimistic? Too much time spent in Charlotte and not enough elsewhere? Not enough caffeine yet?

Next up is Sen. Christopher Dodd, D-Conn., who'll talk about the national infrastructure and – presumably – how much help it needs. Sen. Kay Hagan is introducing him – did you know he has 3- and 7-year-old kids at home? And does Hagan already have more visits back to NC than Elizabeth Dole did? (Oops, slipped into extreme snark mode.)

Granny flats, and granddaddy apartments

Here's a short bit, referring you to an article on the value of accessory apartments -- you know, those mother-in-law apartments, or garage apartments, or granny flats or carriage houses or whatever you want to call them.

A number of municipalities have relaxed their zoning rules to allow them as a way to get more affordable places to live tucked into existing neighborhoods. Since the single-family-home owner owns them, he or she can rent to whomever he wants. The rent helps the homeowner pay the mortgage, too.

Allowing more accessory apartments isn't a silver bullet for affordable housing, but every little bit helps.

Long ago, when I was a kid and we were living for several years in Lakeland, Fla., my parents rented a house with a garage apartment in the back. For a time a young teacher lived there. She belonged to a religious group that didn't believe in makeup. She had very long red hair and I remember thinking she was very very pale.

But most of the time my growing-senile grandfather lived in the apartment, before he decided he didn't want to live in a state that refused to let him renew his driver's license. So Granddaddy returned to his hometown of Wynne, Ark., where he knew everyone at the courthouse, and they gave him a license. It was a small town, and everyone in town knew that if old Mr. Newsom was out driving, just get off the road.

Land conservation: Recession brings opportunity

"Every golf shot makes somebody happy."

Dave Cable, executive director of the Catawba Lands Conservancy, noted Wednesday that this recession that's whipsawing real estate development has a small bright side. The so-called highest and best use of a lot of land around here has gone from residential development to speculative land holding. And no one knows when the market is coming back. So some developers decide they need to sell the land, fast.

"We literally have a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for land conservation," he said.

Cable's remarks came at a Wednesday breakfast for corporate, foundation and government partners. The nonprofit, nonadvocacy land preservation group has preserved more than 8,000 acres from development in the Charlotte region.

"I get calls all the time from developers now," he said after the meeting. Potential conservation sites are being eyed in Union, Gaston and Mecklenburg County, he said. Not all offers are, or should be, accepted, of course. But the group has some 1,600 acres in the pipeline for possible conservation in 2009.

S.C: What NOT to do with stimulus $$

Want to know what not to do with your state's stimulus money request?

Friends of the Earth, with data from the Transportation for America Coalition has analyzed the requests from 19 states. While praising Georgia, Massachusetts and California, the report rips South Carolina:

"South Carolina’s DOT wish list is a perfect example of how not to spend stimulus money. The state has requested $3.24 billion from the stimulus package, with 99 percent designated for roads, 80 percent of which is allotted for new road construction. This despite the fact that South Carolina has an abnormally high percentage of bridges that are structurally deficient: 14 percent. And, although eight percent of South Carolinians use public transportation, which is relatively high, less than one percent of the state’s stimulus ask is designated for public transportation."

North Carolina doesn't come in for specific praise or criticism. But look at the last page, and compare its request to Massachusetts'. In Massachusetts, 47 percent of the request would go to public transportation. Its request for bicycle and pedestrian infrastructure, 2.9 percent, was highest of all public DOT requests. Only 29.7 percent of Massachusetts’ request is designated to roads and of that, 100 percent is for repair and maintenance (12 percent of bridges in the state are structurally deficient).

North Carolina, by contrast, would put 83 percent of its request into roads, only 34 percent of that for repairs. Only 10 percent of its request would go to transit and an embarrassingly small 0.4 percent for bike/pedestrian transportation.

In terms of greenhouse gas emissions, the report notes, "building 10 miles of four-lane highway is like putting 46,700 Hummers on the road."

Another interesting fact: By eliminating one car and taking public transportation instead of driving, a typical two-adult, two-car household can reduce its global warming emissions by 30 percent. That comes from the American Public Transportation Association's testimony to Congress.

Charlotte's pavement worsens

Among the topics at its retreat on Thursday and Friday, the City Council is expected to hear a report about the condition of the city's pavement.

If you've driven on city streets you'll probably not be aghast to read that the pavement's getting worse. And the cost of repairs is rising. The City Council, in its wisdom and its zeal never ever to raise taxes for anything, including police officers, for years has skimped on street repair money, and it's coming back to haunt the city as the maintenance backlog just gets higher.

Further, as people drove less due to higher gasoline prices, the state's gas tax revenues went down and thus, the state money given to the city for its care of state-owned roads (e.g. Providence Road) went down.

The link above is to a PowerPoint presentation, so it's a bit terse in its descriptions. But note the slide about the cost of annexation versus the revenue from annexations. Worth pondering.

I think the city's been wise to continue annexing, because cities that can't annex become financially and geographically strangled. But the revenue figures do set you to thinking about the degree to which sprawling conventional subdivisions simply don't pay their full weight in property tax revenue -- especially when so many of the new subdivisions in the past decade were low-end starter-homes.

Let me just note that higher-density and mixed use developments bring in higher tax revenues than the 3-per-acre autopilot subdivision growth which the city essentially waved into existence for decades.

The bottom line is that if you want to develop land, you can automatically do precisely the stuff that doesn't bring the city enough revenue to pay for itself -- single-family conventional subdivisions. But if you want to do something that might bring in more tax revenue, you gotta jump through a bunch of hoops.