Thursday, May 24, 2007

More myth-puncturing -- and a little news

Read to the end of this, as I've tucked in a news item.

Is it true only 2 percent of the public in Charlotte rides public transportation?

You'll hear that stat a lot. It counts everyone driving through the region on I-85 or I-77, commercial delivery trucks, tractor-trailers, etc. -- trips transit would never compete for. Nearly 10 percent of the workforce in uptown Charlotte takes public transportation every weekday.

Light rail will never reduce congestion.

In a growing metro region, building mass transit doesn't result in fewer cars on the road than before. However, mass transit will keep congestion from being as bad as it would be without mass transit.

In large and very large urban areas with rail, traffic congestion grows at a 42 percent lower rate than in similarly sized urban areas without rail. That's from a study in 2000 by Mobility Planning Associates of Austin, Texas.

The well-respected Texas Transportation Institute, in its 2005 Urban Mobility Report and Texas Transportation Index, found that in the Charlotte region, people who ride public transportation versus driving alone reduce congestion delays by 6 percent to 12 percent, or more than 2 million hours of congestion delay per year.

Public transportation provides 3.25 times more congestion relief than operations treatments such as signalization, intersection improvements, incident management, etc., according to the TTI study.

In coming months you'll hear a lot of people offering up statistics purported to show that light rail transit is a bad, bad, evil and/or spendthrift idea. Plenty of anti-tax folks just don't like more taxes. Other, libertarian types don't like public governments spending money on big public works projects. Others just like to make political hay.

Be smart. Statistics are like cakes. How they turn out depends on what ingredients you start with. For just about every stat purporting to show CATS is wasting money and poorly run and light rail is "failing" all over the country, you can find other stats -- many of them from groups such as TTI that are neither transit bashers nor transit zealots -- that will show the opposite, or will show a more complex, nuanced reality.

Now news, of a sort:
Transit and city officials are looking at whether part of the South Corridor light rail line -- which they call the Lynx Blue Line -- could open earlier than planned. Target date, CATS chief Ron Tober told me, is Oct. 27. The section that would open, he said, would be from uptown to as far south as they determined they could do it safely.

City Manager Pam Syfert says the City Council will be asked to look at the pros and cons of an early opening.

Betcha they're looking at that Nov. 6 election, when the kill-the-transit-tax measure is likely to be on the ballot. Generating a lot of positive community enthusiasm right before the election surely couldn't hurt. But any glitches, and they're toast.

80 comments:

Anonymous said...

Couldn't stand the heat on being called out on the green building thing, so you launched another light-rail pro/con bashing fest? Nice one Mary!

I still say let the city and the HOF decide what's most practical, even if you don't like it. Sorry if there are not enough trees or 'old building' characteristics in the design to fit your personal tatses.

As for the light rail opening up earlier than projected, do it! The sooner that thing opens, the better.

Danimal

Anonymous said...

Mary,
For every article you have for rail, I can find one against. Check the link below. Even has people from UNCC in the article. It basically counters everything in YOUR article.

Funny isn't it?

http://www.nchba.com/index2.php?option=com_content&do_pdf=1&id=443

On the light rail opening early- isn't it already late? And opening but not the whole line doesn't count.

Thad

Anonymous said...

Opening early would likely be a disaster. These things always have glitches in the opening days/weeks/months. CATS would be giving all of the critics a ton of ammo to point to.

There will be very few parking garages or other facilities within range of the stops. Imagine light rail trains running most of the day. That creates a powerful image for the evening news to run with.

It is better to have the image of pretty trains rather than the reality of empty trains or a huge mess from some major malfunction.

Anonymous said...

Actually there is a major national mass transit convention in Charlotte that week. CATS wants to be able to give rides to all of the visiting mass transit big wigs.

This has the potential for a major fiasco if they mess this up. Rushing something this big and complex is never easy. The potential for egg on the face is very big.

Anonymous said...

I used to ride the bus until the powers that be moved the nearest stop and meandered the route through a rough neighborhood. I used to leave my house at 6:50, walk a scant half mile, catch the bus at 7:05 and arrive at work before 7:30. Now I would have to leave the house at about 6:25, walk more than a mile uphill with handbag and briefcase to catch a bus at 6:49 which then drives all over hell and half of Georgia before depositing me at work at 7:25. That's an hour spent for my six-mile commute. Instead, I now drive off at 7:05 park in the deck at 7:22 or so, and am at my desk at 7:25. Kinda a no-brainer. I am not happy about it. $3.15 gas versus my daily $1.20 on the bus, I'm angry that my bus was taken away from me. Maybe someone will notice that there are no white people on that bus anymore. It no longer serves the large population of Stonehaven and Waverly Hall.

Anonymous said...

The light rail ISN'T late. It started construction later than planned, but the opening date is in November and it always has been November since they started construction. You want to talk about LATE? Look at I-485. That thing is a disaster.

Anonymous said...

The difference between South Blvd and I-485 / I-77 is very important.

South Blvd light rail is optional. It is sort of neat and might help on the margins to move some people around in 15 to 25 years.

I-77 and I-485 represents vital transportation arteries for the region. Failure to build and expand those arteries affects just about 100% of the local population.

Even if you never get in a car or truck, everything you eat, buy, consume, etc is transported on those roads/highways.

This is not a debate between roads vs light rail. Light rail does not even remotely come close to the level of relevance to our society. Our road system is VITAL to our economic health. Light rail is a rounding error by comparison.

Light rail is marginal and does not even remotely deserve the same level of resources or attention.

If we fail to maintain or build our road system, we are shooting our region and our economy.

Never for a minute think of light rail as critical to our future. It is marginal and insignificant. Support for light rail is an emotional thing. It is not a rational thing.

Clayj said...

Nearly 10 percent of the workforce in uptown Charlotte takes public transportation every weekday.

Does that include all of the people who ride the FREE Gold Rush from place to place uptown? If so, what's the figure without counting Gold Rush riders?

However, mass transit will keep congestion from being as bad as it would be without mass transit.

This is a specious argument. If mass transit results in even ONE less car being on the road, congestion would not be as bad. The question is, how much are the taxpayers paying for this questionable reduction in the amount of congestion? What is the cost per car removed from the road?

In large and very large urban areas with rail, traffic congestion grows at a 42 percent lower rate than in similarly sized urban areas without rail. That's from a study in 2000 by Mobility Planning Associates of Austin, Texas.

Haven't we had some pro-LRT troll from Austin frequenting your blog lately? And isn't this stat convenient, considering its source?

Be smart. Statistics are like cakes.

Yes, and words can be twisted (as you've done above) to make things sound a lot better than they are; for example, saying that congestion won't be "as bad" with light rail, even though "as bad" is clearly interpretable in many different ways.

Transit and city officials are looking at whether part of the South Corridor light rail line -- which they call the Lynx Blue Line -- could open earlier than planned. Target date, CATS chief Ron Tober told me, is Oct. 27. The section that would open, he said, would be from uptown to as far south as they determined they could do it safely.

City Manager Pam Syfert says the City Council will be asked to look at the pros and cons of an early opening.

Betcha they're looking at that Nov. 6 election, when the kill-the-transit-tax measure is likely to be on the ballot. Generating a lot of positive community enthusiasm right before the election surely couldn't hurt. But any glitches, and they're toast.


Gee, you think? Of course an early opening would be a PR stunt designed to blunt any vote to repeal the transit tax. You don't have to be a cynic to realize this.

Anonymous said...

What is the cost per car removed from the road??

The amount of tax subsidies is about $5,000 per car removed from the road.

Of course an early opening would be a PR stunt designed to blunt any vote to repeal the transit tax. You don't have to be a cynic to realize this.

The potential for that backfiring is HUGE. Empty trains or major snafus would lead to tax repeal winning.

Anonymous said...

FYI-
From an article after the groundbreaking-

"The Charlotte Area Transit System (CATS) has begun construction of the 9.6-mile (15.5-km) South Corridor light rail line, which is scheduled to open in spring 2007. "

As I said, changing to a later date then opening before that date doesn't make it early.

Thad

Anonymous said...

Thad, that is a good point.

That is like CATS claiming that when they increased the budget to $462 million, that is only 10% more than budgeted.

They forget to mention that the original budget was supposed to be $221 million.

This turkey is over 100% beyond it's budget.

So should anyone believe CATS when they say that the North line is $260 million? Or the University line is $750 million?

Get real. University will cost $1.5 billion and the North Commuter line will be $500 million.

According to sources, the South Blvd McCrory line is actually closer to $800 million if you include all of the development subsidies and the diverted sewer/water money.

These criminals in local government are really out of control on the their obsession for train madness.

Anonymous said...

Man shot at uptown Transit Center
MELISSA MANWARE
mmanware@charlotteobserver.com
A man was shot this afternoon at the transit center in Uptown Charlotte, police said.

His injuries are not life-threatening and Charlotte-Mecklenburg police say they are questioning a suspect at this time.

It's unclear what sparked the shooting but Officer Bob Fey the two men knew each other.

The victim, who was shot in the abdomen, was alert and talking, Fey said.

The transit center has remained open and buses are coming and going as usual, he said.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Anonymous said...

"The well-respected Texas Transportation Institute, in its 2005 Urban Mobility Report and Texas Transportation Index, found that in the Charlotte region, people who ride public transportation versus driving alone reduce congestion delays by 6 percent to 12 percent, or more than 2 million hours of congestion delay per year.

Public transportation provides 3.25 times more congestion relief than operations treatments such as signalization, intersection improvements, incident management, etc., according to the TTI study."

Is this some coputer model based on ideal conditions or an actual, real study? How do they know how many cars are off the road?

Like saying, "If everyone ate right, we would have more healthy people." But the reality is that people don't always eat healthy and only a small percent actually use public transportation.

A few blogs ago, Mary posted an indepth study where even the biggest cities only managed 5% or less using public transit.

Rick said...

Mary,

Pulling out all the stops I see.

By the end of the day tomorrow, enough signatures will be collected to put the tax repeal petition over the top. No wonder everyone has their knickers in a twist.

You say percentages are misleading, so let's talk raw numbers.

Right now there are about 20k - 30k jobs Uptown. Let's say it's only 20K for this example - certainly on the low side. The projections for 2030 are about 100k. That's probably a wee bit on the high side, but I'll give you the benefit of the doubt. So that's an incremental 80K jobs.

Right now, 10%, your numbers, ride public transportation for a whopping 2000 people. Jerry Fox from CTAG calls it "alternative transportation" which could include bicycles or walking or car pooling I presume, but again, I'll give you the benefit of the doubt and say it's all public transit.

Projections are that after all proposed rail lines are in place 25% of Uptown commuters will be using "alternative transportation" for a total of 25K people. (Notice again I'm giving you the benefit of the doubt because this assumes NONE of the Uptown condo dwellers walk to work and all ride transit.)

That's 23K incremental transit riders - again giving you the benefit of the doubt by using numbers that play to your benefit. That's 23,000 people out of a region that will have 2-3 million people by that point.

Now let's say only the three known lines are the only ones built AND those numbers outlined above hold up. $450m for South Corridor, $250m for North, $750m for Northeast. That's $1.45 BILLION

That comes out to $63K per person. Add in BRT or rail down Independence and the Street Cars that were promised to the East and West Side and the numbers only get worse.

So, we will be spending an unbelievably large sum of money on an unbelievably small number of people relative to the total population by the end of this fiasco.

No twisting of numbers. Just reality.

As for the attempt to start the line a whole 10 days early...

"Betcha they're looking at that Nov. 6 election, when the kill-the-transit-tax measure is likely to be on the ballot."

Wow!!! What an insightful bit of journalism that statement provides!

It would be better to say...

"It is amazing the lengths that the local government is willing to pursue at this point. It is unheard of in politics for one side to be this aggressive so early in a campaign. They must be terrified that they are going to lose.

It is very telling that the Chamber of Commerce is reluctant to release the details of its recent polling even though it shows strong support for transit. It gives the impression that they are hiding leading questions done for public relations purposes.”

Others have pointed out that CATS is willing to roll the dice on the whole transit project for 10 days of ridership. That alone proves that they are not very confident.

Who does that?

Desperate people do that.

Anonymous said...

Rick, great post. Thanks

Anonymous said...

The Chamber of Commerce has to be really upset. They want to support the school bonds and stop the tax repeal. But that would require a Yes vote on the bonds and a No vote on the repeal. Life would be so much more simple if both issues involved "Yes" or if both involved "No".

The average voter does not really pay attention. And according to circulation trends, they are not reading the Charlotte Observer much either.

So the campaign this year is really tough for them to manage.

And turnout will be so low this year that the anti-tax types can really overwhelm it. You can be sure the Keith Larson WBT crowd will be showing up. I bet there are a lot more train haters than train lovers. Those people who really are upset over things like the arena and other issues will just show up on this one to stick it to the uptown crowd.

I recall that the Chamber poll in 2005 was also predicting victory for the school bond with 58%. The opposite happened. It was defeated with a No vote of 57% with a 20% turnout election.

"Registered" voters in a poll mean nothing. "Likely" voters are the key.

I figure that the tax repeal is about 50/50 either way. Toss up on that question.

On the school bond it all depends on the amount. If it is $600 million or higher, it is dead on arrival. $400 million or lower would likely pass with easy. I would bet that $500 million is abotu the 50/50 spot on passage this year.

Just my opinion.

Anonymous said...

Quote - "I am not happy about it. $3.15 gas versus my daily $1.20 on the bus, I'm angry that my bus was taken away from me."

$1.20 on the bus? Is that the fare you pay? That doesn't cover the expense of your bus ride.

To get your actual cost, you'll need to add in the amount of tax paid by you (and others) to support the bus system.

Clayj said...

It's a known fact that CATS covers a meager 14% of its budget through fares.

So, a $1.20 local fare represents a cost to CATS of $8.57. If you ride the bus twice a day, the cost to you is $2.40... but CATS spends $17.14. Subtract the $2.40 revenue from that, and each twice-a-day bus rider is subsidized to the tune of $14.74.

Do that 20 days a month (assuming you ride to and from work and that's it), and the net subsidy of your bus ride is a whopping $294.80 per rider. The number goes even higher if you ride express routes or if you ride more than 20 days a month.

At almost $300 per rider/month, that means my ANNUAL tax bill to Mecklenburg County (property taxes for my vehicle and residence) basically covers the subsidy of a single CATS rider for an entire year. I pay property taxes, and Joe Schmoe gets his bus ride taken care of. How many people like Joe Schmoe are there? For each one of them, that's another one of us whose tax dollars go solely to providing them a ride.

Sweet deal for them... sucks for the rest of us. If CATS were too much more successful, we'd all go bankrupt.

And the light rail will be even worse than buses WRT being a drain on CATS' budget.

Anonymous said...

Glad to see Dale Gribble and all his conspiricy theory friends are out tonight. We'll see if those final 1000 signatures arrive by tomorrow, and how many actually are legit. Besides you gloom and doom bloggers, everybody I know in town, Democrat and Republican, in-town and suburban, black, white, latin, catholic, protestant, straight, gay, whatever, supports light rail and the city's expanmding transit system. I think some of you will be in for a rude awakening the morning after the election when you realize how metropolitan minded the people of Charlotte are. Then perhaps you will finally shut up.

Anonymous said...

You do know there's nothing special about tomorrow, right? The repeal folks have until August to get all of their signatures collected. I don't think there's any doubt that they will succeed in getting the repeal on the ballot for November.

Anonymous said...

Oh they'll get it on the ballot all right. I just question their confidence in getting it to pass. There are way more public transit supporters in this town than anyone on this board wants to admit.

Anonymous said...

Don't be so sure about that vote in November. Transit doesn't get many people excited. The school bonds are going to dominate the election. There will be a huge "Vote Yes" campaign. That has the Chamber (Bob Morgan) worried that the "Vote Yes" campaign will spill over and take down the transit tax with a "Yes" on repeal.

The actual ballot question just says "repeal transit tax". It is very bland language. The vast majority of the people are not even remotely interested in this topic.

You would be stunned at how few people even care about transit issues.

Anonymous said...

In a low turnout election anything can happen.

In 2005 the Chamber of Commerce released a poll showing 58% support voting Yes for the $427 million school bond.

They were dead wrong. It lost by 57% to 43%.

In a low turnout election anything can happen.

I'll say it again. If the school bond is a huge number like $600 million, then all of the anti-tax types will be motivated to get out and vote. They will tax down the transit tax also.

Anonymous said...

The Observer issued a poll in late May 2001 saying the Arena Bundle would pass too.

Anonymous said...

Once again Mary twists a statistic to lie. She starts with "2% of ALL commuters" and then changes it to "10% of UPTOWN". That's part of your problem - you're an uptown snob bought and owned by BOA, Wachovia, Dook, Nelly Schwab, Boobcat Johnson and the rest of the Tryon Street Mafia.

It ABSOLUTELY IS TRUE that only 2% of the public rides transit. CATS' OWN FIGURES PROVE IT!

Anonymous said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
mcap said...

I hope the anti-transit crowd wins.

I look forward to living in a city that has 12 lane highways, each lane packed full with cars.

I look forward to our armed police state.

I look forward to schools everywhere.

I look forward to sprawl growing outwards until Lake Wylie, Charlotte, Belmont, Waxhaw, Lake Norman, Davidson, and Mooresville is one large urban center, packed with cars on roads.

I look forward to having nothing to do in this city but sit in traffic, watch police pull people over, see kids in school, and go to work.

But hey, at least we won't have to pay taxes!

Anonymous said...

I live uptown but ride the bus to work in S. Charlotte. I leave in the early a.m. and no matter which bus I get on 5:55am, 6:00, 6:05, 6:20 they are all packed. Filled to the brim - sometimes I stand for lack of seats.
Returning home is the same thing. 4:00, 4:25, 5:00, 5:25, - all packed to capacity. The 5:55 and 6:55 pm buses are less full (maybe 1/4 capacity)

What this says to me is they need a lot more buses during the peak hours. Maybe tune down were they get midday.

Then your 2% would go way up.

People are riding more and more. I've noticed a huge increase on my route in the past 6 months.

Rick said...

mcap commits the same offense that most pro-train folks do. They have the false belief that if we build trains, sprawl will stop. If we build trains no more roads will be needed. If we build trains, we will be living in an Urban Utopia full of nothing but upper class, educated, white collar, childless individuals. The air will be clean; the grass will be greener; and everyone will live happily ever after.

They will throw out examples such as Portland, OR or Salt Lake City, UT as low density cities that successfully have built rail and control sprawl.

As recently reported by U.S. News and World Report, by 2030 Portland, OR will have congestion as bad as Los Angeles does today. According to the Light Rail proponents Portland has achieved transit perfection - at the expense of their roadways. Now they are faced with having to ask for more tax increases to avoid a road disaster. Sound familiar?

(www.msnbc.msn.com/id/18681541/)

Salt Lake City, another light rail darling, has done a wonderful job according to the pro-railers. I recently spent 2 weeks there. Within a 10 mile radius of my hotel, there were 3 Targets, 6 KMarts, 6 ShopKos, and 11 - count them - 11 Walmarts. I saw at least 3 corridors that made Independence Blvd look like it has a single general store. The crazy thing was that they were building new big boxes right next to empty big boxes. Yep, they sure are enlightened out there. They have rail and all, so they must be - right? Salt Lake does have one thing that Charlotte should envy – a complete beltway that is 4-5 lanes in each direction.

Anonymous said...

mcap, light rail does not save you from any of those things.

Anonymous said...

It may not save us from all of that, but it will give people a choice not to live like that. That is why people are supporting this, even if they don't happen to use it.

Anonymous said...

Rick,
No one is saying it will stop sprawl or suburban growth. Only Suburbabnites can put a stop to that.

What we are saying is that without more mass transit options you will just be taking those people that would ride the bus/train and throwing them back out onto the roads to CLOG AWAY.

It's such simple math that I cannot believe people can't grasp it.

"Portland will be as crowded as L.A. by 2030"

.....and............ if they didn't have a great light rail and street car program then what would they be in 2030 ???

.............WORSE than L.A.

It's a 1/2 cent tax .... PLEASE, PLEASE.......find something better to do than complain about this topic.

How about investing your energy into helping DUBYA to understand we are wasting BILLIONS per year and losing too many lives.

Now there's a cause worth your time.

Clayj said...

"What we are saying is that without more mass transit options you will just be taking those people that would ride the bus/train and throwing them back out onto the roads to CLOG AWAY."

And what many of us are saying is that there are smarter ways to relieve traffic congestion than to build a $600M boondoggle that will only serve a very select group of people and, by CATS' own admission, will not significantly reduce traffic congestion on any major thoroughfares (which is the point, I think, that you were trying to make).

For example:

- Flex-time scheduling, so that not everyone is going to work and leaving work at exactly the same time each day.

- More options for telecommuting. Many people in Charlotte who work for the banks do not actually need to go in to the office every day. They could easily work from home, and doing so would save them money AND time.

- Optimize CATS. This means running buses only where and when they are needed. It also means getting CATS' budget under control (14% of budget met through fares = horribly, criminally pathetic).

- Shelve any plans (as in, no more talking about them AT ALL) for any further light rail until the current light rail demonstrates to everyone's satisfaction that it actually works without costing us the other arm and leg.

Let's be clear here: What you call OPTIONS many of us call UNNECESSARY EXPENDITURES. I'd like to have the option to drive an Audi R8 to work every day; are you willing to fork over money to provide me with that option?

Yeah, I didn't think so.

Rick said...

Last anon,

You don't get it do you.

First of all, please don't misquote. US News said that it will be as congested, not as crowded.

Congestion in the linked article which you obviously didn't take the time to read is measured in the amount of time a commute takes during rush hour versus non-rush times. It has nothing to do with number of people. In 2030, Portland will be no where near the size of LA today, but it will be as congested. Why? Because they've neglected their road system in favor of rail. They are now faced with a road crisis.

You see, no matter how many trains you build, you still need roads more. Portland made its choice. Portland was a small city that chose to spend its transportation dollars on trains that serve relatively few. Now they have to raise more taxes to do what they should have done in the first place - build more roads.

As for your W comment...

No love lost from me on that one, I'll be glad to see him gone.

Anonymous said...

Light rail is an luxurious option which we cannot afford. The financial implications, of building this plan with more light rail, is disasterous down the road.

If they were to actually build the north line and the University line, it would so overwhelm the sales tax that the bus system would effectively die.

That is what happened in LA. It lead to lawsuits and even higher taxes to cover the massive budget deficits from supporting both bus and light rail.

Ken Rogers said...

Once again, the arrogance of the Observer shows again. Their opinions are considered undebatable facts.

In response to the last Anon, I posted the following a few months ago on another blog thread. Basically, it shows that property taxes AND transit tax have no alternative but to INCREASE:

"According to data presented to City Council last nite, repeal of the 1/2 sales tax would increase the property tax between 4% (bus only) and 22% (bus + 1 train line). The revenue generated by property tax is forecasted at $247.4MM for '07, with an additional $17.6MM from county assesment for shared services (ie: CATS, police, etc). Based on this, the bus only plan incremental is $10.6 MM and the bus+1 line is $58.27 MM. So, one light rail line costs 4.5 times more to operate than the entire the bus system.

It can be extrapolated that a bus + 3 train lines would have an incremental cost of $153.61MM based on '07 dollars. Per the Char-Mek budget, the transit sales tax revenue is forecasted at $62.2 MM in '07. When the full system is online, the operating expenses will be 2.5 times greater (...deficit) than the transit sales tax revenue. Where will this deficit be funded? An increase the transit portion of the sales tax to 1.15 cents would fill the gap, but what politician will approve a measure allowing Mecklenburg's sales tax to balloon to 8.6%? Sale taxes are not generally progressive, as their revenue tends to decline as the rate increases. The next available revenue stream is property taxes.

The current straw man in the transit tax repeal debate is that elimination of the 1/2 cent sales tax will lead to property tax increases. It's quite clear that property taxes have to increase anyway in order to pay the operating deficit of the full system. It's basically pay me now or pay me later, but you will pay in any case"

We need to really think this whole transit plan over before we sink another $ into it.

Anonymous said...

The one thing CATS should do immediately is raise fares for bus riders. Fares are artificially low and being kept too low by the sales tax.

The bus riders pay 14% of the cost of their ticket. It is far more standard for that amount to be 25% to 40% just about everywhere.

At a bare minimum, CATS should raise their ticket prices to be 25% of the real cost in the system.

Anonymous said...

What's up with Mary's dig at Republicans in her article today?

She thinks that under a Democrat controlled congress the federal LRT funding formula will be revised in favor of more spending ( presumably to help a Democrat controlled Charlotte).
A Republican controlled congress has been funding our LRT all along.

It shouldn't be about what party is in control. It should be about what makes fiscal sense.

It should be...but politics never works that way, does it.

Anonymous said...

Mary,
If you're really interested in myth-busting, please take on the story about Susan Burgess claiming $50 million of taxpayer money ( not from the 1/2 cent sales tax ) went to light rail.

Shouldn't be too difficult to find the truth behiend that...unless you are waiting until after Nov.

Anonymous said...

Amen...let's bust the myth that the 1/2 cent sales tax is the ONLY funding for LTR. I think the politicians are banking on the ignorance of the general public. I would like to see the Observer run a poll on that one!

I think some voters would find it interesting that they took an additional property tax increase to pay the $50 MM. They would it know it since the city council told a bold face lie and called the increase a "public safety increase".

Nawdry said...

...

=========================
Anonymous said...
Mary,
For every article you have for rail, I can find one against. Check the link below. Even has people from UNCC in the article. It basically counters everything in YOUR article.

Funny isn't it?

http://www.nchba.com/index2.php?option=com_content&do_pdf=1&id=443


====================

The link provided by Anonymous didn't seem to work - I got a Page Not Found error.

However, the website had a page presenting the prescribed attack on mass transit, so this will probably be representative of what we can expect from the dinosaurs that represent this organization's perspective on transportation:

The truth about traffic and mass transit
http://www.nchba.com/content/view/443/195

Here are some selected jewels of enlightenment from this webpage:

>>
According to the UNC-C study2, public transit has no significant impact on
congestion; the only factor influencing congestion being jobs.
<<

First of all, this is not a quote, so whatever the UNC-C study actually concluded is not established here. Furthermore, impact on congestion where? This is one of those broad-brush claims that has no real meaning. Does a new freeway have an "impact on congestion"? Charlotte has built dozens of miles of additional freeway, yet congestion has clearly increased. Obviously, this assertion is so blurry as to be meaningless.

As articles on Light Rail Now have documented, mass transit CAN have a significant impact on congestion within the CORRIDORS and MARKETS that are served; see:

Projected Ridership for New Light Rail Starts: Issues of Accuracy and Impact on Congestion
http://www.lightrailnow.org/facts/fa_lrt_2006-05a.htm

Denver Data Show Light Rail's Real Impact on Mobility Congestion
http://www.lightrailnow.org/facts/fa_den003.htm

The NC Home Builder attack on transit continues:

>>
Only five percent of American workers take mass transit to work, and the number has been dropping.
<<

The NUMBER of rider-trips has been INCREASING; perhaps the PERCENTAGE has been dropping - but wouldn't it stand to reason that that would happen? After all, roadbuilding (and funding for roads) has been INCREASING at a far greater rate than the expansion of public transit - especially rail.

>>
While the use of personal vehicles has increased more than 85 percent since 1970, the use of mass transit has dropped three percent.3
<<

Since 1970?? Did the Urban Mass Transportation Administration even exist back then? Publicly funded highway construction has been going on since at least before 1920. The Federal Transit Administration, and the major transit funding program, didn't even come into existence until the 1990s. So who are these characters trying to fool?

>>
Availability of light-rail does not reduce automobile use. Each of the four cities that built light rail in the 1980s - Buffalo, Portland, Sacramento, and San Diego - by 1990 had experienced a decline in the percentage of
workers using public transit to get to work.5
<<


As shown above, a "decline in the percentage" really is meaningless, given the condition that highway construction expansion has continued feverishly. Over the period in question, freeways alone have been expanded by hundreds of lane-miles, while rail lines in some of these cities have been expanded by perhaps a few dozen, at most.

What this "percentage of workers" folderol is really trying to do is to confuse the public and OBSCURE the FACT that (except for Buffalo, a Rust Belt city where major employers have declined) public transit RIDERSHIP has INCREASED significantly - a huge reversal of a decades-long trend, and a major indicator of the SUCCESS of rail transit in these cities.

The North Carolina Home Builder Association attack on mass transit continues in this ridiculous vein -relying on several of the usual (and, I might add, thoroughly discredited) professional rail and transit-bashers (such as Wendell Cox) for their misinformation.

It's not hard to find "research studies" and strident ideological tracts like this claiming all kinds of absurdities, from the existence of ghosts to the infinite benefits of automobiles and worthlessness of mass transit. But you have to ask: How reliable, honest, and professional are the authors? How solid and reliable are the sources? Whom can you really trust?

I think on this issue I'll stick with Mary Newsom and her reliance on reliable sources for her statements, like the Texas Transportation Institute.

LH

Anonymous said...

Ah, the guy whose living depends on light rail (Nawdry) shows up at last.

This guy pushing light rail is not one iota different from a cigarette company execute pushing the health benefits of smoking.

mitchel said...

For that scant $1.50 you paid to ride CATS, we the taxpayers are covering the rest of the REAL cost, which is like 2 or 3 times the fare. SUBSIDY, SUBSIDY, SUBSIDY. Would you pay $5-$6 to ride that bus? I think not. (Yes, I realize roads are subsidized too.)

Anonymous said...

Trotting out nawdry again and his world where everything fits nicely except human nature shows how desperate the pro light railers are.

Mary, dispel the "myth" or admit the truth about Susan Burgess if you are really being honest with us.

Anonymous said...

I was wondering when our NON-Mecklenburg, NON-Charlotte mouth piece for the LTR cheerleaders (ie: Nawdry) would show up. I cannot fathom how Nawdry can have a single ounce of credibility when he neither lives here or is paying for a single bit of this fiasco.

His opinion should mean nothing and he should be banned from our LOCAL blog.

Comon' Mary, can't you find some LOCAL cheerleaders?

Anonymous said...

Yes Mary...please get with Ms. Burgess immediately and ask about the $50 MM that city council funded to LTR to the detriment of public safety (ie: police officers).

Oh, and ask about that bald face lie they told to the general public that the 2006 increase was necessary to FUND additional police officers. They would have plenty if not for the $50 MM funded to LTR, so really it was an LTR tax.

Want to know why they LIED? Because the citizen lemmings think the 1/2 cent sales tax is funding everything. If they knew about the double tax for LTR, the tax repeal would have picked up significant steam.

I would think public safety, being the MAIN function of government, would be fully funded FIRST. What would your mortgage company think if you told them that you've decided to pay for a new Rolls Royce ahead of your house payment and please approve a new equity loan to pay for it? Cardboard hotel....

Lastly, welcome back Nawdry. When should we expect your property tax and sales tax money? Ohhh...that's right, your not from here. So, why are your opinions relevant to our local blog? Pay up and I won't have a problem with you providing an opinion on what to do with MY tax dollars.

Anonymous said...

I live in Charlotte and I support Nawdry's enlightening comments on this board to counter all the WBT nonsence spewed that is spewed here. Move to Union County or beyond if you don't like it.

Anonymous said...

So Anon 5/28/2007 12:52:00 you obviously condone outright lies and deceit from your elected officials. Pathetic.

You will get what you deserve: suffocating taxes to support a boondoggle that will carry only 7.5% of the regional population in any one year.

Anonymous said...

Anon..please provide your facts to dispute the following:

1. CATS passengers only pay 14% of the true cost of any ride they take. Other "world class" transit systems that are fawned upon have at least 25-40% of true cost paid by riders.

2. The 1/2 cent sales tax will not support the full transit system (bus and 3 trains). Taxes have to increase to cover it. The threat of the property tax increase if the 1/2 cent sales tax is repealed is completely bogus.

3. City council (Sue Burgess) is on record saying the council deliberately funded $50 MM to LTR and leaving police under-funded. They blatanly lied to the public saying the 2006 tax increase was for public safety.

4. Per #3, the threat of the property tax increase if the 1/2 cent sales tax is repealed is completely bogus. City council has already proven that they will raise property taxes for LTR anyway. The tax man always gets his money....

By the way, a quite a few people are bailing to Union county. At some point in the next 10-15 years the tax base in Mecklenburg will begin to erode, leaving fewer people to pay. The remaining schmucks will then be strapped with crushing taxes and homes you can't give away. Who will be laughing then...?

Anonymous said...

Me like choo-choo!

It go back and forth, back and forth.

It go "choo-choo!"

Me like choo-choo!

- Pammy Pam Segue
- Ronnie TuberHead
- Mayor McCheese

Anonymous said...

Oh, yeah, sure! I'm going to belive Ron Tober & Pam Syfert!

Anonymous said...

Let's see, believe transit engineers or right wing policy wonks. That's a no-brainer. I have no peoblem living in the city and paying the extra taxes to provide this option to the citizenry. Not only does it provide me and others to ditch the car, it take a few cars off the road for other drivers and provides mobility and options for children, the elderly, and those less fortunate than us. Charlotte's taxes are still very low compared to other places I've lived, so paying a little bit more to improve the quality of life for all here doesn't bother me at all. Some people indeed are moving to Union County, and they are about to face a major tax hike if what I heard on the news is correct. They also aren't being allowed to expand their water=sewer plant due to environmental reasons. that is the county I would be trying to avoid right now. But hey, if they siphon off all the cynics, here, so be it. Not my problem.

Anonymous said...

Imagine this scenario: city council passes a $60 MM property tax decrease. They tell the public that they have paid for the tax cut by spending less on...consultants or Nawdry payments. Later, it becomes known that the tax cut actually took money AWAY from LTR too!

Could you imagine all the pissing, whining and groaning that would be going on? Everyone would be appalled and call for special investigations.

So, what is so different with city council fully funding $50 MM to LTR and deliberately under-funding police...then having a TAX INCREASE blamed on public safety?

If I am going to get screwed, at least give me a kiss on the cheek....

Anonymous said...

If I understand all these go-along-get along anons, they 100% condone bald face lies and deceit by their local government.

Truly pathetic.

Anonymous said...

Nothing pathetic at all. I support what our local government is doing, unlike some of you sore losers. I also don't believe everything that John Locke, WBT, Faux News and Rhino Times. If you want to talk about lies, start questioning them. If you don't like Charlotte's and Mecklenburgs's policies, MOVE!

Anonymous said...

So, let me understand...if I want good police protection and a safe place to live, I am a sore loser?

Sorry, the domain of government is to provide for the protection of its citizens. LTR is something that should be funded AFTER providing for protection of the citizens.

I am sorry that Ms. Burgess (ie: Ms. Hug-A-Thug) aired the city councils dirty laundry, lies and deceit on a public radio station. But it's out there and you cannot refute it. I dare you to refute it with FACTS instead of calling me a sore loser and telling me to leave.

Anonymous said...

So its not pathetic have a bunch of liars running our government?

Anonymous said...

Hey 7:15, I am very satisfied with our police protection here and would encourage giving them more funding as well. But I am not on a one track mind like you seem to be. That means thinking ahead as a city and making sure our infrastructure is up to date with our growth. That means having a viable public transit systen as well as roads, sewers, police and fire, etc. I'm sorry that you see if differently and have so much disdain for Susan Burgess and the rest of our excellent city council.

The FACTS are, if you don't like our leadership, vote in November. If the results don't turn out to your liking, move outside the city or county line to a place that is more in tune with your ideals. You're happy, I'm happy, and the rest of the world is happy too. Now, was that hard?

Anonymous said...

Hey 9:38,

You haven't addressed the illegally transfered $50MM by city council.
Nor has Mary punctured it ( we're waiting ).
That money ( small as it is )would have done alot of good towards prosecuting some of the wannabe gang bangers and general low-life criminals that seem to have frequent offender points through the justice system.

We have a viable public transit system here. Its what we call the bus. But you can't build condos at a bus stop, can we.
This is all about tax revenue and nothing about moving people.

We do need some forward thinkers who are professional, above board and know what they're doing. This current crowd is nothing more than an ATM.

Rick said...

I've been thinking about how those of us who believe in honesty, integrity, and clean government consistently are told to leave if we don't like it here.

MOVE! MOVE! MOVE!

We're a bunch of whiners, complainers, and knuckle draggers.

The funny thing is that we can always take that advice at any point in time we choose. If it ever does become too intolerable to live here because of continual bad decisions by our leaders, we'll just leave.

I personally wouldn't mind Iredell, CO. I'd telecommute a couple days a week and ride the train the rest of the time. Let the CharMeck taxpayer foot the bill when their property taxes skyrocket to pay for the choo-choos if they get built. Plus, I'd be closer to the lake to use my boat. Not a bad deal all things considered.

Because we have the luxury of that choice to leave, we can also choose to stay and strive to bring honesty and integrity back to our local government. Hopefully, the thieves and liars (just for you Danimal) can be exposed for who they really are.

What choice do the pro-train, urbanist, large government, nanny-staters have if they lose this one? Are they going to move? Doubtful. Are they going be residing over a "dying" city as they proclaim? Highly unlikely.

I guess if they win, they can scream from the mountaintop that they were on the side of dishonesty, waste, and more government intrusion on peoples' lives, and they won.

Personally, I'd rather be on the side of the knuckle draggers.

Anonymous said...

Mary,

We are still waiting to hear back on Susan Burgess and the $50 MM.

Anonymous said...

Last anon,

Where did Susan Burgess make this statement?

Anonymous said...

Susan Burgess said it on the Keith Larson show ( WBT ).
Regardless of what one might think of WBT, if she said that the city increased transit related spending by $50 million, using money that was not supposed to be for light rail and instead could be used for police, fire, courts, etc...
then we need to know if its true or not.

If its not true, then we need clarification on what was said. I'm sure WBT has a transcript...and Mary certainly could call her ( or a good, investigative reporter could make the call ).

If it is true, then that needs to be brought to peoples' attention before the Nov. 6th.

Mary Newsom said...

I'm clarifying the facts. See my posting about this -- which I hope to put online today (Thursday, May 31).

Anonymous said...

BTW, riding the bus actually COSTS about $10 per ride. That's $20 each round trip.

If you want to compare the expense of ridnig the bus to the expense of driving, use accurate numbers.

CATS had about 17 million one way trips and spent about $165 million dollars in 2005, the last year they have data reported to the national transit database.

http://www.ntdprogram.gov/ntdprogram/pubs/profiles/2005/agency_profiles/4008.pdf

It is cheaper to lease a car and pay for gas than the ACTUAL cost of riding mass transit.

That is why there is not ONE SINGLE privately run for profit transit system in the world. Cars are cheaper per person, per mile.

Spare me the whining about transit serving the poor, or being necessary in a 'world class city'.

If CATS went away tommorrow we would be over it by next week,

Anonymous said...

http://www.ntdprogram.gov/ntdprogram/pubs/profiles/2005/agency_profiles/4008.pdf

Anonymous said...

* Denver's system beat 2015 ridership projections by 55% by 2006. (22k projected vs 34k actual)

* Salt Lake City by 58% (34k 2020 est vs 55k actual in '06)

* Minneapois Hiawatha line by 25% (24.8k 2020 est vs 31k in '06)

Anonymous said...

Denver system-projected by percent population 4% to 6%

Salt Lake system-projected by percent population 2.8% to 4.6%

Minneapolis system-projected by percent population 6.5% to 8%

Using your numbers.

Seems to be a lot spent for a small percentage.

Thad

Anonymous said...

You can come up with the best examples of 'ridership' as a measure of success all you like.

This snake oil that was sold was the light rail would REDUCE pollutiona and congestion, and it will do neither.

Even the best (New York) in terms of ridership is a financial black hole, losing $4.5 BILLION per year.

CATS earns only 10 cents for every dollar it spends, and that ratio is widening.

The people were lied to about light rail. That is why they are mad and why 60K signed a petition.

This is a bad idea for a sparsely populated area like Charlotte. There are no natural boundaries to Charlote like a lakefront, ocean, mountains, etc.

We will continue to sprawl until we hit the Atlantic Ocean, whether you like it or not.

Anonymous said...

"This snake oil that was sold was the light rail would REDUCE pollutiona and congestion, and it will do neither."

I can't believe you'd even attempt to make this argument. Everyone with even a fraction of a brain cell (which apparently excludes YOU) knows that this city is growing as fast as it can construct new buildings. Obviously pollution and congestion will never go BACKWARDS under those conditions, regardless of public policy.

It was pretty clear from Day 1 that the rail system was designed to reduce the RATE of congestion and pollution... not the gross total. Sheesh.

Clayj said...

"Obviously pollution and congestion will never go BACKWARDS under those conditions, regardless of public policy."

It's not obvious at all. Pollution is already going down (compared to, say, 1970) because cars burn gasoline more cleanly now than they used to. (The same is true for power plants.) We have more cars on the road, driving more miles, yet they produce LESS pollution. And congestion may go down, as well, as more employers embrace telecommuting and people run away from Mecklenburg County and its onerous tax burden. (Can you say "Hartford"?)

So at least one of the two things you mentioned IS going backwards, and the other may, too.

Anonymous said...

^ Average pollution has gone down nationally since the mid-20th century for a variety of reasons, but it will not decrease locally from one year to the next regardless of what transit decisions we make. No proponent or opponent of the rail system has EVER tried to argue that the gross amount of pollution in Charlotte's air will be reduced, with or without a light-rail system, because such a trend is entirely outside the purview of local government. If super-clean gas appears on the market, it will have nothing to do with local transit policy.

As for people "running away" from Mecklenburg County... well, there's really no need to advance an argument against that one. The "onerous tax burden" certainly seems to have created one of the nation's fastest-growing cities, hasn't it? So congestion will go up, as it must when the population booms. Again, nobody EVER said that light rail would reduce the overall amount of congestion in Mecklenburg County.

It's misinformation like that in the 06/02/07 post which causes people to vote against their own best interests. Repeat a lie often enough and it becomes the truth... so says the anti-rail lobby.

Rick said...

By the way, Nawdry, are you still collecting checks from Mobility Planning Associates - the source of some of Mary's "data" for this thread?

Just curious...

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